With the Non-Farm Payrolls coming, can gold reach a new high?
Gold is approaching a record high again. Will it break through tonight with the help of non-farm payrolls?
The August US non-farm payrolls report will be released at 20:30 tonight. This report will directly determine whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in the September interest rate decision, and will also directly reveal whether the US economy has entered a recession as the market worries.
Last month, US employment data was weak, especially the unemployment rate hit a new high since October 2021, which aroused market concerns about the US economy. This concern spread to the entire financial market, forming a chain reaction and triggering the Black Monday plunge.
Fed Chairman Powell said at the August Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that he did not expect the August employment report to continue to be weak, and the September interest rate cut would not change due to the rebound in the employment market. The overly weak employment performance is not what the Fed wants to see.
In addition, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States on August 21 was revised down by 810,000, which means that the employment report in the past 12 months has been beautified, and the average number of jobs has decreased by 68,000 per month. It shows that the US economic performance is not as optimistic as the market expected.
Due to the downward revision of past data, non-agricultural data will not have too much water, unlike the huge monthly difference in employment data in the previous few months, which made the investment bank's forecast of employment become a decoration. This time, the market expected 160,000 employment and 4.2% unemployment rate. Last month, 114,000 employment and 4.3% unemployment rate.
Tonight's non-agricultural data mainly has two aspects:
1: The data performed better than market expectations, and the number of employed people rebounded further. It must be a low probability event if it is lower than 100,000. If it is between 110,000 and 160,000, it will cause the gold price to rise first and then fall. It is not as good as expected, but it is stronger than last month.
2: The employment data continued to be weak, even lower than 114,000 last month, and the unemployment rate rose by more than 4.3%, which is bullish for gold. From another perspective, from the perspective of the US economic recession, gold may not rise. Arbitrage transactions will be sold in large quantities, dragging down panic selling of other assets, and gold is no exception.
That is to say, whether the employment data performs well or poorly tonight, it should be difficult for gold to rise. Good employment performance is bearish for gold, and poor employment performance indicates a hard landing of the US economy. Wasn’t last month’s non-farm data bullish, but gold fell sharply?
Therefore, today, gold should pay attention to the risk of falling back after rising. Yesterday, gold broke through 2506 and turned bullish. I also reminded that 2506 is the dividing point between long and short positions this week. If it breaks through, you can no longer have illusions. Then 2518 was reversed to 2505, and a high-altitude profit was made. Pay attention to the dividing point between long and short positions at 2530 today. After a surge upward, be careful of the short-selling counterattack with the help of non-farm data tonight! Focus on 2505 below, and the breakout will continue, but pay attention to risk control.
The August US non-farm payrolls report will be released at 20:30 tonight. This report will directly determine whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in the September interest rate decision, and will also directly reveal whether the US economy has entered a recession as the market worries.
Last month, US employment data was weak, especially the unemployment rate hit a new high since October 2021, which aroused market concerns about the US economy. This concern spread to the entire financial market, forming a chain reaction and triggering the Black Monday plunge.
Fed Chairman Powell said at the August Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that he did not expect the August employment report to continue to be weak, and the September interest rate cut would not change due to the rebound in the employment market. The overly weak employment performance is not what the Fed wants to see.
In addition, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States on August 21 was revised down by 810,000, which means that the employment report in the past 12 months has been beautified, and the average number of jobs has decreased by 68,000 per month. It shows that the US economic performance is not as optimistic as the market expected.
Due to the downward revision of past data, non-agricultural data will not have too much water, unlike the huge monthly difference in employment data in the previous few months, which made the investment bank's forecast of employment become a decoration. This time, the market expected 160,000 employment and 4.2% unemployment rate. Last month, 114,000 employment and 4.3% unemployment rate.
Tonight's non-agricultural data mainly has two aspects:
1: The data performed better than market expectations, and the number of employed people rebounded further. It must be a low probability event if it is lower than 100,000. If it is between 110,000 and 160,000, it will cause the gold price to rise first and then fall. It is not as good as expected, but it is stronger than last month.
2: The employment data continued to be weak, even lower than 114,000 last month, and the unemployment rate rose by more than 4.3%, which is bullish for gold. From another perspective, from the perspective of the US economic recession, gold may not rise. Arbitrage transactions will be sold in large quantities, dragging down panic selling of other assets, and gold is no exception.
That is to say, whether the employment data performs well or poorly tonight, it should be difficult for gold to rise. Good employment performance is bearish for gold, and poor employment performance indicates a hard landing of the US economy. Wasn’t last month’s non-farm data bullish, but gold fell sharply?
Therefore, today, gold should pay attention to the risk of falling back after rising. Yesterday, gold broke through 2506 and turned bullish. I also reminded that 2506 is the dividing point between long and short positions this week. If it breaks through, you can no longer have illusions. Then 2518 was reversed to 2505, and a high-altitude profit was made. Pay attention to the dividing point between long and short positions at 2530 today. After a surge upward, be careful of the short-selling counterattack with the help of non-farm data tonight! Focus on 2505 below, and the breakout will continue, but pay attention to risk control.
Nota
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