Both will do well, but Gold will outperform Energy

25 Jan 2022

Pre-Global Financial Crisis, oil outperformed gold on a relative basis as the global economy was able to expand and there was little perceived need for a safehaven asset. However, the chart shows a clear paradigm shift after the near collapse of the global financial system, which significantly reduced near-term energy demands while also encouraging flows into the yellow metal. With the widespread adoption of QE and other loose central banking policy tools, growth now requires larger and larger percentages of debt. Gold will do better than oil in the longterm, but the expanding wedge shows a LOT of volatility ahead.