IBM EARNINGS TRADE IDEA — BEARISH SETUP INTO EARNINGS

⚠️ IBM EARNINGS TRADE IDEA — BEARISH SETUP INTO EARNINGS ⚠️
📅 Report Date: July 25, 2025 (AMC)
🔎 Confidence Level: 70% Bearish Bias
🧠 Thesis: Fundamentals weak | Options market hedging | Price below key MA | Guidance risk elevated

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🔍 Quick Breakdown:
• IBM is lagging in growth: TTM revenue up just 0.5%, margins OK but under pressure from high debt (D/E 248).
• 100% EPS beat history, BUT current price ($281.96) > analyst target ($273.36) → room for downside surprise.
• Heavy OTM Put flow ($275 & $255 strikes) + Put/Call skew suggests big-money hedging.
• Trading below 20DMA ($287.55) = bearish drift.

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📉 OPTIONS TRADE IDEA (SHORT SETUP)

🛠 Play: Buy $280 Puts (Exp. July 25)
💵 Entry Price: ~$6.30
🎯 Profit Target: ~$12.00
🛑 Stop Loss: ~$3.15
⚖️ Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5
📦 Size: 2 contracts
📊 Expected Move: ±$5
📉 Support to Watch: $270 (Break = flush potential)
📈 IV Rank: 60 — juicy enough, but not extreme.

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📍 Exit Plan:
• 🟢 Sell if premium hits $12+
• 🔴 Cut loss at 50% drawdown ($3.15)
• ⏱ Auto-exit 2 hours post ER if theta crush hits

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📊 TL;DR (FOR THE CHART GANG):

{
"ticker": "IBM",
"direction": "PUT",
"strike": 280,
"expiry": "2025-07-25",
"entry": 6.30,
"target": 12.00,
"stop": 3.15,
"confidence": 70,
"iv_rank": 0.60,
"expected_move": 5,
"earnings_time": "AMC"
}


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