Iota break out or down? (corrected chart)

Iota seems to be at a crucial moment:

The mid-term trend line from early November 2017 has caught up & after a fake out of the descending triangle it has been trading within a range.

There're two possible scenarios:

1. If it can break out of the range with strong RSI , it can possibly go to the 1.618 extension ($8).
2. If it breaks down the mid-term trend line , it's not going to perform well for some time.

Check out my view on bitcoin:

Also check out my website: http://www.jlteng.com
Komen: Still no breakout. Trend line catching up. It may just go up from there (2/3). To come down (1/3) we need bitcoin to crash.
Komen: Appears to be a breakout. We need bitcoin to be stable for a while. Once above ath, iota can go to $8.
Komen: Resistance at 4.5. Probably called this one too early. It's already overbought on the 1h time frame and under. It'll go under somewhat & observe how bitcoin acts. Iota is just a bitcoin margin machine: it goes up 3x bitcoin and down 2x, something like that.
Komen: wow, that was a close call. I got in & out quickly when it turned south.

I noticed that bitifnex coins don't perform like others. I think it's due to their cheap margin.
Komen: still in that tiny triangle. depending on how bitcoin goes. but I happen to think today bitcoin may drop a little (reached the top of the current range).

maybe another fake out.
Komen: This is really disappointing. I got in when bitcoin started pumping & the trend line was hit but iota started dumping at the same time. I think this analysis was possibly wrong. Maybe it's not going above 4.5 without some big news.
IOTA breakouts are completely news driven. It was a good news but nothing revolutionary to set it to ATH range. You can earn more following their twitter account than doing TA.
+1 Balas
DrJLT Seganku
@Seganku, Is this itic news big enough for breakout?
Seganku DrJLT
@DrJLT, I believe revealing "Q" or listing on other major exchange could only push IOTA out of this stagnation. Most of the times IOTA just copy BTC moves.
DrJLT Seganku
@Seganku, yes, I agree it just follows btc. so you think currently it's not going to break out even though the trend line has caught up?

I think maybe the pump earlier was because people thinking the trend line will work. maybe there'll be another try. but I'm in doubt.
It's testing the resistance at 4.16 IMO.
DrJLT StefXan
@StefXan, basically it was another fake out. I still think it may break out, b/c the long-term trend line is here. But probably $8 is as high it could go. Market cap already high enough for iota. $8 will give it no5 circa.
StefXan DrJLT
@DrJLT, I agree. $8 will be difficult to acomplish when we look at marketcap.
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