Technical Analysis:
Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone.
Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203).
Target Zones:
First target: ~$190
Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher.
Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025):
Macro Risk:
Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025.
Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive).
Earnings Season:
Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025).
"Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM.
Market Sentiment:
Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows.
Summary:
IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup.
Hashtags:
#IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone.
Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203).
Target Zones:
First target: ~$190
Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher.
Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025):
Macro Risk:
Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025.
Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive).
Earnings Season:
Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025).
"Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM.
Market Sentiment:
Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows.
Summary:
IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup.
Hashtags:
#IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
Nota
Nota
DSS note: IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) has broken out of a bull flag and reclaimed the 9EMA and anchored VWAP bands from the April decline. It's up 2.29% on the day and targeting resistance zones between 201.21 and 212.33. Caution is advised.
Dagangan aktif
Basically going long with earlier day exp, going short 1 month out contracts ;) Nota
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.