Possible formation of a double top
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Currently, I can't say if the trend is bullish or bearish; there are too many mixed signals. Fundamentally speaking, BTC looks like it has >80% miner support and the market is becoming less afraid of the possible August 1st fork. This can be seen in price action throughout the market. The price action lately has also been very rapid. A lot of emotional trading has been happening for sure. I personally don't like trading when there is so much FOMO + FUD going through the markets at the same time. Price may skyrocket or drop like a rock at any point. In terms of LTC news, development is still going, but nothing earth smashing has been announced yet. The MIT page has been taken down, which strengthens the idea that the page was a a hoax.
Now that fundamentals have been examined, let's break down the above chart. We're looking at LTC/USD 30 minute charts. The two red lines above indicate the previous bearish trend channel. Since we broke above the channel, we can say that the previous resistance has become the new support. We cab see that playing out at the trough of the possible double top.
Next, let's take a look at the indicators. The bollinger bands are currently expanded and we're at the upper border of the bands. We can see that the price had a bullish bias in the last 12 or so hours and the price has been extending above the upper border of the BB bands. Usually, price movement above BB boundaries tend to rebound and we can see that at the second peak as well as the lower border of the BB at the trough. There currently is no compression: To me this indicates a slower up or down movement of the price compared to a contracted BB (e.g. 7/20/21 7:30 UTC-3). Watch out for contraction to indicate for rapid movement
Volume wise, I am getting mixed signals. There has been an increasing amount of volume with the rise in price (solid blue arrow) the past few hours, however, note the high volume during the sell off (red dashed arrow) of the second peak. This may state that the market does support a higher price, but strongly rejects the $45 price target.
Looking at the RSI, there is still a divergence in the rise in price. The new highs in the RSI do not correspond to new highs in price. For a bearish argument, the new los in price DO correspond to new lows in RSI
MACD also displays similar divergence. A bullish argument may be raised that there is a slight increase in RSI (from 7/18 to present), however I see three bearish arguments: The current highs have a lower MACD than the lower highs of the 7/16, the bearish MACD does get lower with new lows however, and the MACD is about to flip negative
This is a risky trade if someone is going to short it and if you're waiting on a lower price, like I am myself, it is also a high risk wait. We could be left behind in a major bullish push. If we do move down, we may also bounce off of the upper border of the bear trend channel, which I do see as moderately-highly likely.
If margin trading, I've left a leeway of 3% off of the peak of the price, so set tight stops. I would also wait for a closer confirmation of the pattern, aka the price closer to the trough, to greatly reduce risks.
These are my personal analysis and how I govern my trading. Remember that trading crypto is gambling. Don't gamble more than you can lose. Losing potential profits is better than losing actualized money.
Disclaimer: I am currently in fiat right now.
Hopefully this has been helpful. If you think I made any mistakes, feel free to comment so that both you and I may improve. Wish you all the best.
Now that fundamentals have been examined, let's break down the above chart. We're looking at LTC/USD 30 minute charts. The two red lines above indicate the previous bearish trend channel. Since we broke above the channel, we can say that the previous resistance has become the new support. We cab see that playing out at the trough of the possible double top.
Next, let's take a look at the indicators. The bollinger bands are currently expanded and we're at the upper border of the bands. We can see that the price had a bullish bias in the last 12 or so hours and the price has been extending above the upper border of the BB bands. Usually, price movement above BB boundaries tend to rebound and we can see that at the second peak as well as the lower border of the BB at the trough. There currently is no compression: To me this indicates a slower up or down movement of the price compared to a contracted BB (e.g. 7/20/21 7:30 UTC-3). Watch out for contraction to indicate for rapid movement
Volume wise, I am getting mixed signals. There has been an increasing amount of volume with the rise in price (solid blue arrow) the past few hours, however, note the high volume during the sell off (red dashed arrow) of the second peak. This may state that the market does support a higher price, but strongly rejects the $45 price target.
Looking at the RSI, there is still a divergence in the rise in price. The new highs in the RSI do not correspond to new highs in price. For a bearish argument, the new los in price DO correspond to new lows in RSI
MACD also displays similar divergence. A bullish argument may be raised that there is a slight increase in RSI (from 7/18 to present), however I see three bearish arguments: The current highs have a lower MACD than the lower highs of the 7/16, the bearish MACD does get lower with new lows however, and the MACD is about to flip negative
This is a risky trade if someone is going to short it and if you're waiting on a lower price, like I am myself, it is also a high risk wait. We could be left behind in a major bullish push. If we do move down, we may also bounce off of the upper border of the bear trend channel, which I do see as moderately-highly likely.
If margin trading, I've left a leeway of 3% off of the peak of the price, so set tight stops. I would also wait for a closer confirmation of the pattern, aka the price closer to the trough, to greatly reduce risks.
These are my personal analysis and how I govern my trading. Remember that trading crypto is gambling. Don't gamble more than you can lose. Losing potential profits is better than losing actualized money.
Disclaimer: I am currently in fiat right now.
Hopefully this has been helpful. If you think I made any mistakes, feel free to comment so that both you and I may improve. Wish you all the best.
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Looks like it was overcame! Very nice to all the hodlers. Of course, since there is a new high, the calculation for the price change is now invalidated.
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