Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Litecoin! WOW! As you can see, LTC dropped to the $107 handle, slightly above the $105 target, and has bounced nicely! It's currently printing a bullish engulfing hammer candle, and you can see that the MACD is starting to round to the upside. Additionally, we can see that buy-side volume is surpassing the red volume on the chart, signaling strong buyer involvement. Perhaps this is the move, that brings a close to the bear market. I actually took my first long position in a while at $108.50. I do realize, however, that there is a lot of work that needs to be done. We have a lot of overhead resistance, and technically, the bears are still in control. We can't technically confirm that a trend reversal has occurred, until the top of the downtrend channel is surpassed, and we start to print some higher highs and lows. As you know, I always say "never try to catch a falling knife." However, there is a strong reaction off of my long awaited downside target, and, personally, I was willing to go long there. With that said, I do have an exit strategy. If LTC takes out my $105 target, I'm out. Furthermore, as gains begin to accumulate, I will probably bring my stop level higher. You can see that the current bullish engulfing candle is running into the bottom of the last bear flag. It's catching a bit of resistance there, which is expected. We now need to watch closely, to see how LTC reacts to these overhead resistance levels. Ideally, I'd like to see some strong follow through to the upside, to take us up to test the bottom of the downtrend channel. Watch this action very carefully, because if LTC begins to head lower, it would take out my target level, and turn to test the bottom of the downtrend channel. Good luck to you all!
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-MPC loves you-
-JD-
Komen
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Warning: This analysis is HIGHLY CONDITIONAL! If we lose the $105 handle, further downside is very likely. Good luck friends!
Komen
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Update! Be careful with bullish positions! It looks like today's bounce could fail. Be very careful, and watch the $105 level. If that gets broken, LTC and the rest of the crypto space could experience another wave of selling. Be very careful right here!
Man, I have to tell you you are one of the best analysts on the Tradingview.com. Just wanted to tell you.
Hulksbits
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@apribytkovsky, Yeah, agreed. And we follow. A magic poop cannon.
JanCerva
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Your master piece on LTC is amazing! I've got a question. The prices of LTC & BTC are in a very close correlation now. As you set the low point on LTC @ around 105 USD and for BTC around 5650 USD how do you see it now? LTC hit it but BTC still has a way to go... Thanks
knutselwout
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@JanCerva, Good question. I am also very interested in the response.
powderpc
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@JanCerva, Yeah, this analysis makes no sense. LTCUSD just dipped 37% on a BTCUSD 25% dip. If he thinks BTCUSD has more to go then LTCUSD will follow. LTCBTC is actually sitting at a relatively high valuation versus its recent low in December so I think his analysis is entirely based on TA rather than just basic market logic. If LTCBTC has a relatively high valuation it makes more sense to sell off to BTC or fiat and wait for this big dip (or set staggered trades based on probabilities of each price target) and try to enter LTC when the relative valuation looks better (and then sell off to BTC when it peaks).
If you are expecting BTC to dip then you should be holding fiat to buy back into BTC (or LTC if the relative valuation looks good). There is always money to be made trading crypto if you know how the system works. You will definitely lose money if you simply follow chart analysis rather than understanding the overall market and the price action relative to BTC.
Of course, it's pretty easy to get lucky with crypto. Just ask 50 Cent, your best strategy is just to forget you own it and then come back to it in a year.
MCassICT
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Wait a minute! Who is messing with the @MagicPoopCannon account? I see the word BULLISH which is a dead give away someone has taken control of his keyboard...
casitapark
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@Bremily01 One secret of the Magic Poop.....always keep them guessing, even when hiding in plain sight and telling them straight to their faces!
powderpc
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This analysis doesn't make sense on several levels. On the one hand, your TA on another chart suggests BTCUSD to go lower but you're taking a long position in LTC. If BTC dips to $5500-6k as many see as a >50% probability, LTCUSD will follow in a major way as we saw a dip of around 37% for LTCUSD versus about 25% for BTCUSD in the most recent carnage. This tight correlation ALWAYS happens due to arbitrage (with the exception of Zcash due to a pumpy article by one of their investors claiming it will go to some ridiculous price). It's also why alts tend to follow a big gain in BTC. See for example when LTCBTC was trading around 0.0055 BTC in early December and then skyrocketed to 0.02 BTC. We're now only at 0.0147 BTC, so relatively speaking still on the upper part of the trading range. If you expect BTC to go lower and LTC to follow, then it makes more sense to be selling LTC to BTC (or fiat) and looking for an opportunity to buy back into BTC (and LTC) after the expected dip in BTC for a more durable "long" position. At this point you're telling people to do one thing with BTC and another with LTC that conflicts. It makes absolutely no sense for you to take a long position in LTC while screaming at the top of your lungs for people to exit BTC as it makes its way towards 6k or lower.
Ultimately, since we all still measure our gains in fiat you probably want to have a large fiat position relative to crypto and stagger long BTC entries based on risk/reward at those entry levels. Or just day trade the huge swings with 50-80% of your portfolio and make money like that to offset the volatility of hodling the rest.
@powderpc, Poopoo, BUSTED! I think Poo here is just taking a speculative quick wave 4 move up position to scalp like 10%, knowing full well there are layers of overhead restance keeping upside limited, but at the same time the bounce was at a confluence of 200dma support, oversold levels, and enfulfing green candle on huge volume. In otherwords, he played the dead cat bounce. As did I. As did a ton of people here. I think we deserve an update on the start of the big wave 5 down though. I'm guessing it starts Tuesday, after SEC and CFTC get together to scrutinize the crypto world and start making some regulations? Saturdays are usually really big pump days too, so this thing could fly to 10,000 quick before a final selloff.