Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan

📈 Chart Overview
Current Price: 5,312.75

Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend.

📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis

SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward.

SMA 50 (light blue): ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross)

SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal.

Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support.

This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal.

📈 RSI (14 Close)

Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA)

Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness.

Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating.

📈 MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD Line: -132.13
Signal Line: -125.86
Histogram: +6.27 and rising

Interpretation:
MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving.

Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move.

🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest

Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend.

🧨 Volatility Outlook

• VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'.
  
• VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65
  

📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation:

• In high VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future.
  
• DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated.
  
• I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions.
  

Bearish Possibilities:

• Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable.
  
• Failures on trade talks with major trading partners.
  

Bullish Possibilities:

• Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely.
  
• Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners.
  
• Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely.
  
• Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in US10Y yields.
  

📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule

Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week

• Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims
  
• Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods
  
• Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations
  

Notable Earnings Calendar:

• Verizon VZ - Tuesday
  
• Lockhead LMT - Tuesday
  
• Ratheon RTX - Tuesday
  
• Tesla TSLA - Tuesday
  
• Boeing BA - Wednesday
  
• Google GOOG - Thursday
  
• Intel INTC - Thursday
  
• Pepsi PEP - Thursday
  
• Proctor and Gamble PG - Thursday
  
• T-Mobile TMUS - Thursday
  

🔍 Summary

🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'.

🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength.

🧠 Tactics:

Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment.
Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for:

• Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's
  
• If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50).
  
• If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.