MILDEF - Take Your Seats Before the Flight

6 Jun

🔍 Overview
- Current price: 218.6 SEK, down -1.00% for the day.
- The stock has been trading in a rising channel, but is now testing the lower boundary, indicating potential breakdown risk.
- The chart shows a weakening trend with bearish divergence and MACD crossover to the downside.

📐 Chart Structure & Price Action

🔸 Rising Channel (Bearish Bias if Broken)
- The stock had been respecting an upward-sloping channel.
- Currently sitting at channel support. A break below may trigger further downside toward 191 SEK.

📉 Bearish Divergence (MACD)
- While the price made a new high, the MACD failed to do so, indicating weakening momentum.
- The divergence was followed by a sharp drop.

🟪 Key Support Levels
- Around 204 SEK (EMA 100) and 166 SEK (EMA 200) are potential support zones.

📊 MACD Momentum
- Clear bearish crossover.
- Histogram moving deeper into negative territory = momentum shift to the downside.
- Correction for one week is highly potential.

📌 Notable Chart Labels
- “Not to miss the flight” label is for those who do not want to miss the upward move.
- “Good place to buy” and “Reduce average cost” suggest key support and buy zones in previous pullbacks.

⚠️ Strategic Notes
- Prefer partial trading, buy 1/3 with the opening.
- If price breaks below 215 SEK (support and EMA 50), further selloff toward 191 SEK is likely that will reduce average.
- If the channel holds, a bounce could occur, targeting the upper range ~280 SEK.
- If the channel does not hold, we will reduce average cost once more at 166 SEK. But in this case, we will also increase our target to 350 SEK.

18 Jun

Nota

Important Update

After breaking above the 100-day moving average (204 SEK), the stock attempted to hold this level for "four consecutive days". This initially appeared to be a potential "reversal signal". However, we have not misjudged the fake setup and did not take a position. By the end of the "fourth day", the price failed to hold the "rising channel support" (198 SEK) even and subsequently broke below the "support-resistance zone" (190 - 193) either.

Currently, there is no immediate support below. The most probable downside target is in the "163–165 SEK" range, which aligns with both the "200-day average" and a key "support-resistance-reversal" level.

Interestingly, today’s closing price (192 SEK), when combined with the formation that developed around the "100-day" average, has reinforced a more bullish-looking setup now. According to this formation, the optimal entry range appears to be between "173 and 177" — effectively offering a 40% discount from recent highs.

Once we confirm the reversal point, we’ll proceed to calculate the potential upside target.

18 Jun

Nota

24 Jun

Nota

Over the past 8 days, MILDEF completed a technical pullback to the 100-day moving average—coinciding with both the broken rising channel and the former support zone. However, today, on the 9th day, the price action completely reversed that pullback.

From a psychological perspective—especially for traders looking to enter a position—this move was a classic bull trap. The MACD was also setting up for a bullish crossover, adding to the illusion and reinforcing the trap.

Fortunately, we avoided entering prematurely. Now, we have a solid opportunity to open our first position in the 173–177 range, which represents a 40% discount from all time highs.

If the price continues to drop, I’ll be ready to open a second, doubled position around 125—though this scenario is currently less likely. That would mean a total discount of 60%.

3 Jul

Nota

No return signal yet.
Closely following price actions for a potential reversal formation.