Altria Elliott Wave Count
Assuming the bullish thesis laid out in my previously published posts (linked below), this is my current long-term count for Altria.
With wave I of cycle degree being the longest, wave V must be shorter than wave III. This only limits MO to ~$103.44 for a move measured in price. On a percentage basis there's plenty of room to run as long as it's less than 1603%! Interestingly, Fibonnaci projections at both cycle and primary degree fall into the same zones making $76-$78 and attractive initial target. This initial target is not far from a double from current prices.
The part of this count that is less than ideal is the current 9 waves down for a correction. A complex double zigzag WXY would subdivide as 7 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) and a triple zigzag WXYXZ would subdivide as 11 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C-X-A-B-C). This leaves one to think the bottom is not yet in. Possibly it's an ABC zigzag with an ending diagonal C explaining the overlapping waves going down.
Taking into consideration the technicals highlighted in "If you didn't know which company this was, would you buy?" are occurring on such a large time frame, I think they are likely to hold as reversal indicators. Additionally, I have presented in "Altria Fundamental Trends" a sustainable trend for profitability and dividends along with indicators Altria is relatively undervalued in "Altria Valuation."
Factoring for the confluence of long-term technicals, low historical valuation metrics for MO, and a healthy looking long-term trend in margin growth that is reflected in revenue growth for a product in secular decline I think this is an opportune time to buy shares of MO. This allows me to favor an Elliott Wave count with bullish bias and not get too hung up on an idealized corrective count. This is an individual stock that has fallen out of favor. (There are a number of reasons to expect less than perfect Elliott Wave counts here.)
With wave I of cycle degree being the longest, wave V must be shorter than wave III. This only limits MO to ~$103.44 for a move measured in price. On a percentage basis there's plenty of room to run as long as it's less than 1603%! Interestingly, Fibonnaci projections at both cycle and primary degree fall into the same zones making $76-$78 and attractive initial target. This initial target is not far from a double from current prices.
The part of this count that is less than ideal is the current 9 waves down for a correction. A complex double zigzag WXY would subdivide as 7 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) and a triple zigzag WXYXZ would subdivide as 11 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C-X-A-B-C). This leaves one to think the bottom is not yet in. Possibly it's an ABC zigzag with an ending diagonal C explaining the overlapping waves going down.
Taking into consideration the technicals highlighted in "If you didn't know which company this was, would you buy?" are occurring on such a large time frame, I think they are likely to hold as reversal indicators. Additionally, I have presented in "Altria Fundamental Trends" a sustainable trend for profitability and dividends along with indicators Altria is relatively undervalued in "Altria Valuation."
Factoring for the confluence of long-term technicals, low historical valuation metrics for MO, and a healthy looking long-term trend in margin growth that is reflected in revenue growth for a product in secular decline I think this is an opportune time to buy shares of MO. This allows me to favor an Elliott Wave count with bullish bias and not get too hung up on an idealized corrective count. This is an individual stock that has fallen out of favor. (There are a number of reasons to expect less than perfect Elliott Wave counts here.)
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