In the last 2 weeks, MSFT broke above 2 major pivot levels $448 and $455 – that’s just 4 weeks after hitting a 52-week low on April 7th
Some would say that this represents huge momentum – and that the stock is ready for a major breakout above all-time high level and fly above $470
I have 4 issues with that view – that I need the stock to go through first and “prove itself” – let’s take a look at them quickly
1. Daily Shows Exhaustion: The last few daily bars are not reflecting confidence in the price moves – they reflect exhaustion – that’s almost all last week – the price struggled to close at the day’s high.
2. Missing the Right Alignment: The 50SMA is still below the 100SMA – that shows the bulls will still need a “breather” to consolidate their efforts and the key SMAs to align properly. In the daily view we also see how extended the price is (look at the purple line 20SMA wrt the other MA's)
3. Over-bought Weekly: The weekly chart shows the stock as over-bought, supporting the view that some profit taking and consolidation need to happen first before a serious breakout to new highs
4. Unsupportive Market: The market is still not recovered – we’re still in “daily-news-jumpy-sensitive” mode – there are even opinions that we’re in a bear market rally. Then some large money are waiting to see the outcome of tariffs and other decisions that will have lagging impact in June & July .. for me this is the most critical factor.
MSFT continues to be one of the best plays out there, so as we build up the position in our portfolio, let’s keep an eye on these factors and await setups with higher probabilities.
As usual, this is not a trading recommendation - just my own quick analysis
- please feel free to share your thoughts.
Some would say that this represents huge momentum – and that the stock is ready for a major breakout above all-time high level and fly above $470
I have 4 issues with that view – that I need the stock to go through first and “prove itself” – let’s take a look at them quickly
1. Daily Shows Exhaustion: The last few daily bars are not reflecting confidence in the price moves – they reflect exhaustion – that’s almost all last week – the price struggled to close at the day’s high.
2. Missing the Right Alignment: The 50SMA is still below the 100SMA – that shows the bulls will still need a “breather” to consolidate their efforts and the key SMAs to align properly. In the daily view we also see how extended the price is (look at the purple line 20SMA wrt the other MA's)
3. Over-bought Weekly: The weekly chart shows the stock as over-bought, supporting the view that some profit taking and consolidation need to happen first before a serious breakout to new highs
4. Unsupportive Market: The market is still not recovered – we’re still in “daily-news-jumpy-sensitive” mode – there are even opinions that we’re in a bear market rally. Then some large money are waiting to see the outcome of tariffs and other decisions that will have lagging impact in June & July .. for me this is the most critical factor.
MSFT continues to be one of the best plays out there, so as we build up the position in our portfolio, let’s keep an eye on these factors and await setups with higher probabilities.
As usual, this is not a trading recommendation - just my own quick analysis
- please feel free to share your thoughts.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.