MSFT Trying to Reclaim Momentum – Sept 18 Trade Setup

💡 Here’s my TA look at Microsoft for Wednesday, using the 1-hour chart and GEX options data.

1️⃣ Price Action & Structure
* Sideways-to-up channel: MSFT is still within its rising channel but recently pulled back to test the lower boundary near $505. Buyers stepped in, bringing price back to $510.
* Key pivot: $510–512.5 is the short-term battleground. A clean hourly close above here would likely target $517.5 next.
* Support zone: If $505 breaks, next guardrails are $500 and $497.

2️⃣ GEX (Options Flow) Check
* Call magnets: Strong gamma walls cluster at $512.5 and $517.5, with heavier resistance around $525–530.
* Put defense: Major put walls stack at $495 and $490, providing a cushion if the market turns.
* Low IVR: IVR is only 9.4 with IVx ~23.7—options are on the cheaper side.

3️⃣ Trading Thoughts
* Bullish play: If MSFT closes above $512.5, look for a run to $517.5 and maybe $525. Logical stop under $505.
* Bearish hedge: Short only if $505 fails. First downside target is $500, then $497.

4️⃣ Option Angles
* Upside trade: Call spreads like 510/520 or 510/525 are a defined-risk way to catch a move higher.
* Neutral strategy: Selling puts under $495 offers premium if you expect MSFT to hold above major support.

5️⃣ My View
Microsoft is still in a healthy structure after last week’s shakeout. If it clears $512.5 with good volume, I’d favor a push to the mid-$520s. A drop under $505, however, flips the script quickly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational discussion only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.