Critical Zones Ahead for NAS100!

20 Nov 2024

Here is a detailed breakdown and trading plan for the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) based on the provided chart analysis, using the same structured format for clarity.

NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Market Breakdown & Trading Plan
1. Market Context and Structure
Phase and Current Movement:
Left Chart (1H):

NAS100 is in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave sequence, moving within a corrective phase.
Wave 5 is expected to bring a final push higher before transitioning into a larger correction.
Price is showing a potential weakened Wave A, followed by a shallow corrective structure, suggesting upward movement toward a key resistance area near 20,771.9–21,045.3.
Right Chart (4H):

The current market is within a distribution phase (Phase C) after breaking above a Volume-Divergence by Wave 5 zone (22,061.9) on a previous attempt.
A strong rejection in the resistance zone is anticipated, followed by a markdown phase targeting lower support levels.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion)
Target Levels:
First target: 20,771.9 (Wave A peak resistance).
Primary target: 21,045.3 (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement and divergence level).
Stretch target: 21,247.5 (weakened high resistance on the daily chart).
Invalidation: Reversal below 20,500.0 before reaching 20,771.9 invalidates Wave 5 completion.
Correction and Markdown Phase:
Key Reversal Zone:
A strong rejection at 21,045.3–21,247.5 is expected to trigger the markdown phase.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 20,647.3 (short-term support at key Fibonacci level).
Medium-term target: 20,408.1 (Wave B triangle boundary and critical support).
Extended downside: 20,309.1 (invalidates bullish structure; Phase C SC line).
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Bullish Resistance Zones:
20,771.9: Wave A high; primary resistance where rejection could occur.
21,045.3: 0.786 Fibonacci retracement; key resistance and divergence zone.
21,247.5: Stretch target; weakened high likely to attract liquidity before reversal.
Support Zones:
20,647.3: Fibonacci 0.5 retracement; potential bounce zone during markdown.
20,408.1: Triangle boundary (Wave B support) and critical level for bullish continuation.
20,309.1: SC accumulation level; loss here confirms bearish continuation.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for bullish continuation toward resistance levels if price holds above 20,647.3.
Entry:
Enter long positions on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0 with clear bullish momentum.
Targets:
First target: 20,771.9.
Primary target: 21,045.3.
Stretch target: 21,247.5.
Invalidation: A failure to hold above 20,500.0 signals early markdown, invalidating this scenario.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5 Completion
Setup: Look for rejection at the 21,045.3–21,247.5 resistance zone to confirm markdown.
Short Entry Criteria:
Rejection from the resistance zone with lower highs on lower timeframes.
Confirmation via bearish momentum and failure to break above resistance.
Targets:
Short-term target: 20,647.3.
Medium-term target: 20,408.1.
Extended target: 20,309.1.
Stop-Loss: Above 21,247.5 (upper resistance zone) to limit risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break 20,771.9 or reverses early:
Watch for signs of markdown with a breakdown below 20,500.0.
Short Setup:
Enter on confirmation of bearish breakdown below 20,500.0.
Targets:
Short-term target: 20,408.1.
Medium-term target: 20,309.1.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 20,771.9 invalidates bearish markdown bias.
5. Commentary for Your Audience
What to Expect This Week:
NAS100 is likely to push higher to test resistance at 20,771.9–21,045.3, potentially hitting the stretch target at 21,247.5.
A strong reversal is expected from these levels, leading to a markdown phase targeting lower support levels like 20,647.3, 20,408.1, and 20,309.1.
How to Trade:
For Long Traders:

Enter longs on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0, targeting 21,045.3.
Be cautious near resistance; take profits and prepare for a reversal.
For Short Traders:

Look for bearish rejection signals near 21,045.3–21,247.5 and enter shorts.
Target the markdown phase toward 20,408.1 or deeper.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
For longs, place stops below 20,500.0.
For shorts, place stops above 21,247.5.
Position Sizing: Adjust leverage for high volatility near key levels.
Discipline: Avoid over-trading and wait for clear confirmation of setups.

20 Nov 2024

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25 Nov 2024

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨

📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.

🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)

Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)

If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."

Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:

Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.

Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪

25 Nov 2024

Nota

If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?

25 Nov 2024

Nota

How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?

25 Nov 2024

Nota

📊 End of Day Thoughts

Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups

26 Nov 2024

Nota

GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.

26 Nov 2024

Nota

What value do you see in joining a trading community that provides personalized mentorship?

27 Nov 2024

Nota

AU - Monthly CPI Indicator (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for AUD.
Rationale: A drop to 2.1% YoY inflation signals reduced price pressures.
Best Crossover: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – Look for AUD weakness.
US - Core PCE Price Index (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for USD.
Rationale: Consensus alignment (0.3%) keeps inflation expectations steady.
Best Crossover: Neutral impact.
US - Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
Outcome: Mixed for USD.
Rationale: Ex-transportation data (0.5% → 0.6%) bullish, but headline number (-0.7%) bearish.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for volatility.
US - GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: 3% growth outpaces previous expectations, supporting economic strength.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, EUR/USD – Dollar strength likely.
US - Personal Spending (OCT)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: Increased spending (0.5%) reflects consumer confidence.
Best Crossover: USD/CHF, XAU/USD.
US - Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A widening deficit (-108.23B vs. -99.9B) pressures the dollar.
Best Crossover: EUR/USD, USD/JPY.

29 Nov 2024

Nota

I hope everyone had a successful trading week and was able to secure some profits! As we look ahead, make sure to stay up to date with the latest market updates. Set alarms on my page and enable email notifications so you don’t miss out on next week's swing opportunities.