Fundamental view:
Total US natural gas consumption rose 0.8% to 75.1 Bcf/d. Power sector demand increased 1.0% to 43.8 Bcf/d, driven by higher temperatures and increased air conditioning use. While total supply averaged 112.5 Bcf/d, down 0.6% from the previous week. Dry production decreased 0.6% to 106.2 Bcf/d. Net imports from Canada fell 1.4% to 6.3 Bcf/d. Rig count for natural gas fell by 1 to 108 rigs, indicating a slight reduction in drilling activity.
As a result, the working gas underground continued to increase above the 5-year average, nearly reaching its highest level in 5 years.
However, the higher-than-expected temperature and the demand from the EU, ASIA countries could support the price in the long term.
Technical view:
XNGUSD rebounded to $3.39/MMBtu on July 11, 2025, up 1.45% from the previous day, but is down 3% over the past month. Prices remain 45% higher year-over-year, reflecting a strong medium-term uptrend.
The price is consolidating above $3.20–$3.25 support, with a descending wedge pattern forming—often a precursor to a bullish reversal. The 100-period SMA is below the 200-period SMA, confirming a bearish bias, and the price is trading below both. The Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, and RSI is near technical bounce territory, but both indicate lingering bearish momentum.
A breakout above the wedge and the 100/200 EMA resistance, especially above $3.60, could trigger a rally toward $3.80 or even $4.00. Oversold momentum indicators and potential seasonal demand spikes could support this move.
Failure to hold $3.20–$3.25 support or persistent rejection at EMA resistance could push prices to $3.00 or even $2.70. Bearish momentum, increased inventories, or weak demand would reinforce the downside.
Total US natural gas consumption rose 0.8% to 75.1 Bcf/d. Power sector demand increased 1.0% to 43.8 Bcf/d, driven by higher temperatures and increased air conditioning use. While total supply averaged 112.5 Bcf/d, down 0.6% from the previous week. Dry production decreased 0.6% to 106.2 Bcf/d. Net imports from Canada fell 1.4% to 6.3 Bcf/d. Rig count for natural gas fell by 1 to 108 rigs, indicating a slight reduction in drilling activity.
As a result, the working gas underground continued to increase above the 5-year average, nearly reaching its highest level in 5 years.
However, the higher-than-expected temperature and the demand from the EU, ASIA countries could support the price in the long term.
Technical view:
XNGUSD rebounded to $3.39/MMBtu on July 11, 2025, up 1.45% from the previous day, but is down 3% over the past month. Prices remain 45% higher year-over-year, reflecting a strong medium-term uptrend.
The price is consolidating above $3.20–$3.25 support, with a descending wedge pattern forming—often a precursor to a bullish reversal. The 100-period SMA is below the 200-period SMA, confirming a bearish bias, and the price is trading below both. The Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, and RSI is near technical bounce territory, but both indicate lingering bearish momentum.
A breakout above the wedge and the 100/200 EMA resistance, especially above $3.60, could trigger a rally toward $3.80 or even $4.00. Oversold momentum indicators and potential seasonal demand spikes could support this move.
Failure to hold $3.20–$3.25 support or persistent rejection at EMA resistance could push prices to $3.00 or even $2.70. Bearish momentum, increased inventories, or weak demand would reinforce the downside.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.