Equity Spring
Telah dikemas kini
The Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story.
Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners.
After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls.
The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby bears.
Spring season greets the only ones left alive.
Last year Bears got scammed. Panic ensued when equities began dropping rapidly.
Little did they know, that what they lost in Equity value, they gained in Dollar value.
Investors' sentiment can easily get played. And it can easily be measured.
The incredible thing about the chart above, the Equity Put Call Ratio, is that it proves the overwhelmingly negative sentiment that exists now.
Everyone "braces for impact", volatility is reaching incredible lows because nobody trades, expecting the crash to come any day now.
Low volatility doesn't necessarily lead to higher volatility.
Spring is the best season for traders.
It may very well have come and passed, and we haven't realized it.
Equities have indeed slowed down.
But perhaps they are now moving as slow as it gets.
It is certain however that many more springs will come and go...
A trader must be wise, and adapt in the new balances.
One used to profit indefinitely from the perfect equity-bond investment strategy. Now this does not work.
Bonds will get bust! And money will flow out of bonds and seek other shelter.
Now one can get rich just by holding onto fiat currency.
Gold "currency" is fighting for survival...
While crypto is beating most kinds of investments.
It seems that money is flowing out of Bonds and Gold, and into Equities and Energy.
The message is clearly written.
Either you find the truth by yourself, or you listen to what others have to say. Just make sure to listen to the right voice.
May the truth be your guidance, not wealth.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. There are two ways to become wealthy. Theft and inheritance.
Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire.
P.S.2. Buffett longs oil.
Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners.
After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls.
The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby bears.
Spring season greets the only ones left alive.
Last year Bears got scammed. Panic ensued when equities began dropping rapidly.
Little did they know, that what they lost in Equity value, they gained in Dollar value.
Investors' sentiment can easily get played. And it can easily be measured.
The incredible thing about the chart above, the Equity Put Call Ratio, is that it proves the overwhelmingly negative sentiment that exists now.
Everyone "braces for impact", volatility is reaching incredible lows because nobody trades, expecting the crash to come any day now.
Low volatility doesn't necessarily lead to higher volatility.
Spring is the best season for traders.
It may very well have come and passed, and we haven't realized it.
Equities have indeed slowed down.
But perhaps they are now moving as slow as it gets.
It is certain however that many more springs will come and go...
A trader must be wise, and adapt in the new balances.
One used to profit indefinitely from the perfect equity-bond investment strategy. Now this does not work.
Bonds will get bust! And money will flow out of bonds and seek other shelter.
Now one can get rich just by holding onto fiat currency.
Gold "currency" is fighting for survival...
While crypto is beating most kinds of investments.
It seems that money is flowing out of Bonds and Gold, and into Equities and Energy.
The message is clearly written.
Either you find the truth by yourself, or you listen to what others have to say. Just make sure to listen to the right voice.
May the truth be your guidance, not wealth.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. There are two ways to become wealthy. Theft and inheritance.
Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire.
P.S.2. Buffett longs oil.
Nota
Plot twist:This latest "support" we are climbing on, is fake.
This indicator is was just this week developed.
So there can be a question for its dependency.
Nota
Well, this chart above may be a plot-twist after all...SPX seems like beating DJI for the years to come.
Deglobalization will lead to smaller companies. Today's massive multinationals looks like that they will fail.
Nota
Nota
If yield rates continue to climb, then the yield inversion may never correct.The recession everyone expects to come (when yield curve normalizes) may never come.
We don't have data for the yield curve, in the QT period (1920-1980). We don't know how the yield curve will work in this new era of QT. We can only theorize.
I believe that the yield curve will remain negative for more than many expect.
In the years before, a yield inversion was a reason for recessionary warning. The yield curve is inversely correlated to yields (positively correlated to bonds). So a dip in yield curve resulted in a mini Bond crisis.
From now on it seems that a yield correction will be a reason for recession. A dip in the yield curve results in an increase in DXY.
More info in the idea below:
Now that countries are considering abandoning dollar as a reserve, there is no reason for the dollar to be weak.
Powerful dollar and negative yield curve (money burning) 4 ever!
This combo is not bad at all for the US economy!
Nota
Nota
Short analysis on 1/CPCS:Bearish sentiment is so high, that it is now possible for all investors to get "trapped inside" a multi-month bull market. CPCS calls for a fundamental bottom in bearish sentiment.
Nota
And a short market analysis:The bull market may take some months before it fully picks up the pace.
After a broken HnS neckline, now the chart is experiencing a backtest.
This chart dropping isn't actually a bear market, it just attempts to describe a period of relative weakness.
As yields increase, SPX is showing relative weakness against DJI. If yields have peaked, then we can expect SPX to begin picking up the pace from DJI.
Nota
Spring in some countries will be sweeter than the US.Thank you The_Unwind
Nota
Something small regarding Gold.Nota
Just like 1995, we have something that resembles a spring...Nota
NDQ is actually NOT shaping into a bubble top.Nota
How on earth, with banks going bankrupt and WW3 around the corner, can equities increase?In contrary, look at the 2008 price action:
Nota
Long live SPX!Nota
Penafian
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