NDX and QQQ - April Thesis and Lvls

3 Apr 2022

Flow analysis via Unusual Whales...

NDX=
Most Active Chains 4.1.22:
5.20.22 / 14,000p, 14,900c, 15,150c
Chains with the highest OI 4.1.22:
4.14.22 / 14,225c = 5k oi
4.14.22 / 13,000p = 1k oi
bullish 6506 / bearish 4828
Biggest options trades 4.1.22:
bullish skew

QQQ =
Most Active Chains 4.1.22:
4.4.22 / 360p, 358p, 363c, 364c
Chains with highest OI 4.1.22:
ALL BEARISH
Biggest Options Trades 4.1.22:
Overwhelmingly Bearish skew but all very far dated EXP... all of the bullish volume (three out of the top ten sorted by premium volume) where near dated 4.8.22 and 5.20.22; a floor, cross. and third order totaling about $15m in bullish premium. There was about $56m bearish premium that came through, notably a big cross order coming in 11am hour for over $32m, buying 9.16.22 360p.

There has been notable dark pool volume starting march 7th, coming in every day...

Price Action

Since march 14 we have broken the lower highs set in Feb and March and respected the low set end of Feb and the range low of Jan.
Slight pullback / consolidation of the highs of Feb - in process of forming higher low? -
Local swing low on qqq @ 351 and march open at 345 ; high @ 371.83
Same concept for NDX, using these levels....

Sir, I am bullish

Target 1 - 15265 (local swing high)
Target 2 - 15459 (weekly lvl)
Target 3 - 16000 (s/r flip jan)
Target 4 - 16350- 16513 (next weekly lvl, year open, year high range)
ATH is 16764

Invalidation levels / Intraday downside targets
Failure of local swing low - 14446 and march open at 14197
Jan range low - 13724
HTF swing and yearly low of 13020


Note qqq lvls
Target
371, 380, 384, 399, 403
invalidation / down
353-351,345, 336, 318

3 Apr 2022

Nota

TOTAL OI = call 3m / put 7m

4 Apr 2022

Nota

Updated Flow Format:

for the week of 4.4.22

FLOW

NDX=

Most Active Chains 4.1.22:
5.20.22 / 14,000p, 14,900c, 15,150c

Chains with the highest OI 4.1.22:
4.14.22 / 14,225c = 5k oi
4.14.22 / 13,000p = 1k oi
bullish 6506 / bearish 4828

Biggest options trades 4.1.22:
bullish skew - 6/10


Total OI = 44k / 47k
Avg 3d call v / put v = 3k / 3k
4.1.22 call v / put v = 2.4k / 2.7k

Top 5 chains by vol 4.1.22:
3/5 bullish

Top Floor Trades (+25k) 4.1.22:
split

1K=$30k premiums 4.1.22:
skewed bullish

QQQ Flow =

Most Active Chains 4.1.22:
4.4.22 / 360p, 358p, 363c, 364c

Chains with highest OI 4.1.22:
ALL BEARISH
4.14.22 / 320p, 330p, 300p, 310p, 280p, 340p.

Biggest Options Trades 4.1.22:
Overwhelmingly Bearish skew but all very far dated EXP... all of the bullish volume (three out of the top ten sorted by premium volume) where near dated 4.8.22 and 5.20.22; a floor order, cross. order and third order totaling about $15m in bullish premium. There was about $56m bearish premium that came through, notably a big cross order coming in 11am hour for over $44m, buying 9.16.22 360p 345p, 322p.

There has been notable dark pool volume starting march 7th, coming in every day...

TOTAL OI = call 3m / put 7m
Avg 3d call v / put v = 970k / 2m
4.1.22 call v / put v = 1m / 1.4m

Top 5 chains by vol 4.1.22:
3/5 Bearish

Top Floor Trades (+25K) 4.1.22:
split

1K-$30k premium - Skew bullish for the little guys