I wish all Readers and Traders a Happy new year!
NIFTY50 opened the day with less volatil and arange trading by around 30points. One and a half hour befor closing bell spikes up and NIFTY starts declining by more than 100 points to days low @ 10423,10, and bounced a bit back to closing price at 10435.55! VIX moved sideways while of course and declined strong to new intraday lows.
As before. As long as NIFTY50 is trading below t`s ATH @ 10552.40 the shortterm trend is down and if NIFTY is trading below todays 10423.10 the next possible target is at 10372.65 from Dec. 18.
Todays a/d-Ratio was very weak ( EoD ) at 0.21, while TRIN is below 1 (interpreting a strong day!!). All this trading behavior occurs with less , because of market holidays around the world.
Shortterm it is not yet possible to count this move in an impulsiv manner, but it look like it could be one during tomorrows session, indicating a sideways move within a flat or forming a triangle within a wave 4 and a decline to new fresh low, with a strong rebound after this may will occur!
So, as a guidance I have marked to levels at chart shortterm. The first is the declining grey at top which connects the highs at 10552 and 10537.85, a potencially wave ((2)) top. As long as NIFTY50 is trading below this level the correction is on the move.
The second one is the dotted blue connecting the lows at 10423 today and the level of 10428 zone from Dec. 21! A sharp drop below this line with a solid increasing and rising on a closing basis (at minimum hourly timeframe, better daily) will indicate that a sharp decline at midterm time is an the run. The potencially target that I have named days befor are still valid.
Observing NIFTY50 and Bank NIFTY on a will show us, that NB made it`s high at Nov 28, while NIFTY50 made it at Dec. 27! Other Major Indian Indexes made their highs respectivly in the same manner, indicating a „non-divergence“ betweeen NB and others. I wrote before that „non-divergence“ may often occur at reversal points at chart. So we have to watch this behavior closely. By the way, important Indexes as N200, N500, SENSEX and NIFTY50 itself created „bearish Engulfing" that day. NIFTY IT made a Harami, also a reversal pattern!
What also caught my eye is the Inidan Ruppy, while it is just close to end a long declining phase (34 min chart) and at least a five move pattern. If Indian Ruppy is at forefront to reversal and move into a countertrend push at first, the odds do increase that a longer lasted corrective phase for Indexes is still at forefront!
Have a great day
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!
Data by NSEIndia.com and moneycontrol.com!