NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE

5 Sep 2022

!!good morning members!!
-back with a weekly update

global observation
-dollar index above 110 which is bad
-we have discussed this higher the dollar index fii will pull money
-but the daily chart in dollar index is showing negative divergence
-which indicates a top in dollar index is near


USA MARKET UPDATE
-index closed negative of friday too
-record level of shorts in us markets
-a short squeeze is on the cards
-historic data us market remains negative in sept

EUROPEAN MARKETS
-euro markets are going to suffer the most
-the term "winter is coming actual suits them"
-gas prices are going to go higher
-our natural gas play is going good
-european market inflation is going higher and higher

INDIAN MARKETS
-what we need to see how much of the negative news is priced in
-we have no doubt outperformed global markets
-view is still bearish but we are absorbing the news
-if dollar index tops out we will see major boost in second half of the month
-if market consolidates will be great
-we are in a better position
-remember our market will outperform if there is a global market
-we have seen dollar/inr find resistance at 80.2/80.3
-rbi is capable of monetary intervention

NIFTY INDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
-in simple words nifty index is consolidating
-rejecting the trendline on the upside
-the best and ideal position to buy nifty index is at 17030-17050 or above 17830
-remember if we absorb the global pressure we will fire on the upside sooner of later
-our view of new all time high till diwali is intact
-today we have a holiday in usa market due to labor day
-remember crucial for nifty to defend 17500
-if breaks below i will look for levels of 17050-16950 zones to accumulate nifty

SUPPORT
17430-17225-17150
RESISTANCE
17630-17740-17830
(levels based on closing basis only)

BANKNIFTY INDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
-banknifty index is more strong compared to nifty
-index is trading in a range of 37800-39800
-note here the index is making higher low each time
-levels to watch in banknifty index is 38850
-a move below this level will open up a move towards 37800-38200
-a move above 39800 (sustains for 15-30 mins) will open up a trending move in banknifty index


SUPPORT
37800-38200-38800
RESISTANCE
39750-39800

NOTE FOR BOTH THE INDEX
-past three days we have inside bar pattern on daily chart
-a range break on either side will lead to a good move

DATA
-fii long exposure down to 19%
-all are worrying
-its a good thing their exposure is less in the market
-banknifty and nifty pcr @0.95/1
-only worry is naked put exposure of retail
-they can be taken to cleaners if market reverses

FOR FURTHER TRADE ACTION
-Check the link in the signature box
-further updates only in the channel