NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a bullish candle on all 5 trading sessions which signifies total control of Bulls. The final 2 sessions of the month saw strong momentum once 1782-=860 zone is breached. There was no looking back. April saw reversal of 4 months of losing streak Month-end Options expiry gave the required push for a decent gain.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

Weekly charts suggest that

1. The index moved in a range of 471 points viz. between 17612 and 18089
   The oscillators of different time frames are showing positive signals
   The Index has clearly stayed above the long term trend line
   Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
   Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
   Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18240 and support at 17690 with a Pivot at 17950
   Index may find supports at 18030, 17920, 17860, 17770, and the index could face resistances at multiple levels viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), 18350(Jan 22 High)
   Expected to remain in the range of 17850-18250 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
   
   

Additional interesting observations

*As observed in the previous blog daily close above 17830 saw the Index scale 18K mark
The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a monthly close below 17700
The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18450-500 with hurdles on every 100 points starting 18180
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
17126-17221(far away for now)
16650-16770 (far away for now)
16360-16560 (far away for now)

Final Note
The Index has stayed well above the long term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17600
An observation from the previous Blog
Going by the past occurrences, the index is expected to post a considerable monthly gains after three months of decline. With Just a week to go in this month the chances appear to be bleak (The first part did happen and as against the slightly doubtful stance in the second part, the Index made 440 points gain. However, in the past occurrences the gains were much higher)
The daily chart shows a steep upward channel with top at 18240 range and base at 17690
Last week move suggests that a new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH
Market appears to be betting on the hypothesis that the interest rates are peaking and possibly expecting a pause instead of a hike
We are entering in to another crucial week and crucial range with an event risk of Fed rate decision due on 3rd May 2023
Having achieved 18K range bulls might try to hold on to the gains. However, there could be strong resistances at past monthly peak levels of the past Viz 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), 18350(Jan 22 High)
#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.