Lets start with my monthly view posted on March 27
I had said
1. The bounce is mere a pullback and not a fresh upward trend.
2. 9400-9500 and 9970-10000 are strong resistance zones and close above these levels will challenge the bearish view.
So far,
1. NIFTY faced strong resistance in 9400 zone and then broke out and fall back below that zone. This so far confirms the monthly view. Hence this view holds.
2. NIFTY is back below very long term trend line. So if NIFTY is in bear market, it wont cross this line again decisively.
Now coming to my last week view,
1. We had a massive gap down which again confirmed the bearish view and NIFTY has to trade above 9900, which is inline with monthly view.
For the week coming,
1. We have had 5 down days. After initial fall, there has not been strong follow through.
2. My sense is that NIFTY is going to grind towards 8900 levels. But looking at chart, for no reason, I think there will be a attempt to bounce sometime in May which may surprise everyone. I don't know how high this bounce can go. Currently NIFTY is lacking momentum on both sides. There is no conviction is both sides, and before any trending move to happen, it needs trapped buyers or trapped sellers.
Overall
1. Trade on short side, but no aggressive overnight near the money shorts.
2. Use of spreads and protective strategies.
3. Prepare for frustrating side way move before some news driven surprise.
I had said
1. The bounce is mere a pullback and not a fresh upward trend.
2. 9400-9500 and 9970-10000 are strong resistance zones and close above these levels will challenge the bearish view.
So far,
1. NIFTY faced strong resistance in 9400 zone and then broke out and fall back below that zone. This so far confirms the monthly view. Hence this view holds.
2. NIFTY is back below very long term trend line. So if NIFTY is in bear market, it wont cross this line again decisively.
Now coming to my last week view,
1. We had a massive gap down which again confirmed the bearish view and NIFTY has to trade above 9900, which is inline with monthly view.
For the week coming,
1. We have had 5 down days. After initial fall, there has not been strong follow through.
2. My sense is that NIFTY is going to grind towards 8900 levels. But looking at chart, for no reason, I think there will be a attempt to bounce sometime in May which may surprise everyone. I don't know how high this bounce can go. Currently NIFTY is lacking momentum on both sides. There is no conviction is both sides, and before any trending move to happen, it needs trapped buyers or trapped sellers.
Overall
1. Trade on short side, but no aggressive overnight near the money shorts.
2. Use of spreads and protective strategies.
3. Prepare for frustrating side way move before some news driven surprise.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.