NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw yet another week of free fall. The Global risk perception continuing to paint gloomy picture, added to the sharp fall. With crucial support region of 17250-300 giving up easily it was golden week for the bears as they came heavily on every spike or gap up opening.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 679 points viz. between 17529 and 116850
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing negative signals
  Global Risk perception has tilted towards highly uncertain and negative
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

* index may find supports at 17035,16870,16740 and the index could struggle penetrating the resistances at multiple levels viz. 17140, 17255, 17360, 17470,17560
Expected to remain in the range of 16850-17560 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
Additional interesting observations

*While the overall sentiments continue to be negative, some moves seem to be similar in the past
Week of 12 Dec22 to Week of 19 Dec22-18696-17779- 917 Following week 300+
Week of 16 Jan23 to Week of 23 Jan23- 18183-17493- 690 Following week 250+
Week of 06 Mar23 to Week of 13 Mar23- 17799-16850- 949 Following week ???
The Index may find stiff resistance at 17270 & 17440
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are risk zones for sharp moves)
16650-16770(Far away for now)
16360-16560
Final Note
*The Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 16740 and top at 17800. We have seen the Index moving closer to the lower end.
Most likely scenario could be a range of 16740-17440
We need to see a daily close above 17510 for further gains
Something noted in 7th Nov22 Blog
Many observations are shared by analysists and economists on the striking similarities seen between 2008 & Present. Are we seeing resilience and insulation for India? Recession Pushed to 2023? Till we see something dangerous let’s enjoy the party is the market mood?
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035.
We have tested one notch below this 50%
What next? Only hope and optimism cannot make us survive
Central Banks are trying to fix one issue which results in another type of risk
It is to be noted that the monthly charts paint a very gloomy picture as most indices are below the Mid BB
Capital protection weighs higher compared to gains

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.