NIFTY for 13th November

More bad news came After market closed on Monday. IIP for September shirnks to 4.3 % ( Read -4.3%), which is lowest in 8 years. Manufacturing, electricity, mining all fell. Manufacturing, which accounts for 78% of index contracted by 3.9% (read -3.9%). SIAM data released showed 0.28% improvement in passenger vehicles sales (due to Diwali discounts offered), slight increase in figure after 11 month consistant fall. But all other categories CVs, Three-wheelers, two-wheelers again fell by 23%, 3.6%,14.4% respectively. Economy shows no sign of bottoming but markets are showing mixed signals- Banknifty at quite highlevels but NIfty on weak footing.
1) FII & DII data: On Monday too, FIIs were Net buyers by 664 Crs and DIIs were Nit sellers by 245 Crs. Till FIIs turn negative, Banknifty will continue its forward march.
2) Option chain data : On PUT side, highest total OI (19.31 lakhs) is at 11900 strike but highest fresh Put writing (6.83 lakhs) is at 11850. 2nd highest Total OI (17.25 lakhs) is at 11800. There is decent OI build-up at 11700 also (16 lakhs), which shows that Put writers are slowly shifting their bets down. So, at least for tomorrow, 11850 can work as support. On CALL side, highest total OI (25.21 lakhs) is at 12000 and highest fresh Call writing (5.85 lakhs) is at 12150. There is unwinding at 12050,12000 & 11950 but good Call addition on 11900 & 11850. This too shows that Call writers are shifting their bets on lower strikes, thinking that Nifty will not be able to rise above 12000. Since Nifty CMP is 11913, 11950 is good resistance for tomorrow as per OC data.
3) Charts : On daily chart, Nifty finished as a base-like green candle but with lower high and lower low. Now in this case there are two scenarios-Scenario 1- Due to bad figures mentioned above, Nifty is negatively biased. But if BNF shows strength. NIfty might have a limited fall with some attempt to rise also possible, meaning a doji kind of candle might happen tomorrow on daily chart.
Scenario 2- If BankNifty looks weak in the morning (or tired due to good run on Monday) and slides even slightly, Nifty will fall big time, finishing as a strong red candle.
So outlook is broadly bearish as far as Nifty is concerned. The selling area is marked on chart, though I don't think, Nifty will be able to rise till that point.
All the best. Happy trading.