NAZ has been in a range for most of August, will need to bust up or break down. Now 19,671 is TLX that will follow yellow or white arrows. Looking for Drop at 671, posted yesterday on August Post. The September Chart will show the YTD Open at 17,027 (look for retest), the Fib Levels and YTD High. Volume was low in August and the O/N did have many redirects back up (after a drop in Reg Session). Just watch for any Push/Pull for the Short trades, no P/P juts stay Long. O/N redirects have been consistent, use those also but watch the Pump/Dump into the Reg Session.
Nota
The range today was 771 points and 1 way, one of the widest YTD. FOMO/BTD got caught.Nota
Bad news is Bad, for now. We need a Noise indicators, crazy but accurate. Trading has become a Cartoon and clown show. Nota
FYI, volume since 8/6 has been about hlf of prior months and that is not a good thing. Should any significant selling show up we may see a decent drop. VIX is ready just need a push. Nota
9/6 Update, NAZ does hit KL 725 in O/N and look for Reg Session move today. The drop in O/N is most likely a Long Set up into Friday-Monday Long Rally. Just not feeling the drop, unless Jobs number shakes things up. Look Long 1st and watch the stall out. Nota
One odd and new development is how the O/N will drop and Reg Session will lift, only to give it back. This is the exact opposite of what we have been seeing for 2 years or so. With NAZ near ATH we could see a deep decline should the O/N Not lift the NAZ (like it has for 2 years after a Reg Session drop). Rig may me breaking down. Sorry for mixed call, key day so do not chance and watch the tricks. Nota
This could be a major O/N Pump/Dump so if the 540 retest does not hold, look short but I highly doubt that since it is Monday. Typical BTD/FOMO day, Go Fed.Nota
Seems like a U Turn, Good Luck and I am out most of the day.Nota
The yellow arrow will show how the price action is just moving 100-150 points with stop clean out moves (from previous position). This is basically direction noise until the break out. The next major move is lower and any hold or sideways move will continue to chop like shown here. Go Short and hold Short for the drop and this may be a drop/out or just another drop test. Nota
Good Luck today, getting that Strong Short sensation. Usually I am 1 day or so early (if not spot on). Let's see if we get head fake Long or straight out Drop.Nota
Rigged, use a parachute. Good luck today and watch the Push/Pull show up.Nota
Once again no lift in Reg Session. NAZ will have to get to O/N to lift or lower we go. The typical Friday-Monday long pop is not working this week so far. Nota
FYI, the prior O/N session had the fewest Ticks, orders, etc. in a long time. No O/N pop and the NAZ drop will usually follow. NAZ depends on games and tricks in order to stay up. Off Reg Session PA is what to watch, then Reg Session. O/N is still the BOSS, for now. No lift in O/N is the 1st signal.Nota
Have you looked at the volume lately? We have no volume, any selling will drop this so watch the stall outs on any typical lifts prior to Fed Day.Nota
Go Fed, BTD/FOMO to the Moon in Dead Zone or O/N. Just watch the Head Fake if you are Long Here at 19,780.Nota
9/19 Update, NAZ did get to O/N Safe Zone, Did U Turn away from the Gap and Danger Zone and did it WHEN: In The Overnight Off Session. This is the main and only/majority way the NAZ lifts and stays up. There will be a flat Reg Session and then a sell off during a Reg Session and O/N combo and that will be the start of the drop test. Long in O/N, Short in Open Range, Long in Dead Zone and Close in Random.Nota
The O/N low volume Long only stabilizing price action can not continue to stabilize the NAZ. Look back at previous Posts and you will see many "air pocket" drops that have erased days and weeks of this type of PA in hours or just a few days. Ride the tide but watch the stall out to drop in a reg session.Nota
9/20 Update, The O/N did go lower some and that may be the 1st sign of Friday-Monday Long play breakdown. NAZ now back a Mid O/R and looking to retest 19,700 on stall out (Wed Mid O/R). No drop, go Long back up for Dead Zone lift in Reg Session. Just watch the Reg Session PA whenever the O/N sells off. NAZ really needs that extra push in the O/N.Nota
Go Fed. Print, Cut and Defer until next Bubble. Nota
9/24 Update, So the typical sideways to O/N and then lift in O/N did play out after a flat/nothing Reg Session Monday. Chart below is 2 day PA range bar chart. The PA is light and weak. I think the challenge is with the tricks and games such as, O/N vs Reg Session, O/R play and Dead Zone lifts/stalls. NAZ is looking frail, may see games up and reality down. Nota
May be way off but just feels like house of cards and rigs. Any significant selling pressure may really drop these indexes. If you look back for weeks, you can see price to volume divergence. Price will lift while volume is flat to declining. This will usually be followed with a drop or retest lower. Nota
See comment below about hook long.Nota
9/26 Update, The usual and just nonstop lifting in the O/N continues. This is just so weak as the Reg Session can not lift or maintain any O/N prop. The 30M chart will show long above Box and Strong Short under Box. The Circles are the lift PA O/N zones and the Box is sideways Reg Session PA that was just waiting for the next O/N lift. Visit CME Group site to view past 4 day volume, way off. Games during low volume days are usually set ups for the counter trade. Nota
Once again, up in O/N and drop in Reg Session. The pattern continues and should the Reg Session sell big the O/N lift may be off or set up better exit levels for the sellers (which are multiplying). Nota
Like clockwork, you have a money manager on Bloomberg talking about Black swan territory NOW. Get ready for a retest lower Nota
Stay short under 20,400Nota
Friday to Monday Long Only Rally is likely should the O/R not sell off. Go Fed, FOMO's are ready. Dagangan ditutup secara manual
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