📰 News Catalyst:
NVIDIA (NVDA) crashed over 6% after-hours following the disclosure of a $5.5B charge related to U.S. export restrictions. The company’s H20 AI chips, intended for China, have been rendered unsellable due to newly enforced licensing restrictions — prompting a massive writedown and raising investor concerns.
📊 Technical Analysis – 1H Chart:
Market Structure:
* Breakdown from an ascending support line signals short-term bearish momentum.
* Strong bounce attempt at the 105 level, which aligns with prior structure and GEX PUT support.
* Resistance now firmly stacked at 113, 114, and especially 115.44, where price previously rejected hard.
Indicators:
* EMA/VWAP rejection confirms trend shift.
* MACD has crossed bearish with increasing momentum.
* RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 35), confirming selling pressure.
🔮 GEX Insights – Options Sentiment:
* Heavy CALL Walls sit at 113–116, with the strongest wall at 115.44, now acting as a firm ceiling unless a gamma flip occurs.
* PUT Support builds around 105, with the next wall lower at 100. This structure suggests downside remains open if 105 breaks again.
* IVR is at 33.3, and IVx is falling by 20%, hinting at possible IV crush risk despite price volatility.
* Dealers are likely net short gamma, meaning continued downward movement could fuel more forced selling.
🧠 Thoughts & Strategy:
Bias remains bearish unless bulls can reclaim and close above the 109.2–110 area.
If 105 fails again on high volume, momentum likely drives price toward 100, where the next major PUT Wall sits. Beyond that, 92.64 is the next major structure from previous swing lows.
A bounce is only favorable if 105 holds firm with a high-volume reclaim above VWAP and a bullish signal from RSI or MACD.
🎯 Trade Setups:
Bearish Setup:
* Entry below 105
* Target 1: 100
* Target 2: 92.64
* Stop Loss: Above 109.2
Bullish Countertrend (Risky):
* Entry: 105.50 reclaim with confirmation
* Target: 109.2, then 113
* Stop Loss: Below 104.8
⚠️ Final Take:
NVDA is under serious pressure from both a fundamental shock and a gamma-driven technical breakdown. With GEX showing strong PUT dominance and CALL walls stacked above, the path of least resistance remains down unless bulls reclaim key zones. Keep risk tight and let price confirm.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk wisely.
NVIDIA (NVDA) crashed over 6% after-hours following the disclosure of a $5.5B charge related to U.S. export restrictions. The company’s H20 AI chips, intended for China, have been rendered unsellable due to newly enforced licensing restrictions — prompting a massive writedown and raising investor concerns.
📊 Technical Analysis – 1H Chart:
Market Structure:
* Breakdown from an ascending support line signals short-term bearish momentum.
* Strong bounce attempt at the 105 level, which aligns with prior structure and GEX PUT support.
* Resistance now firmly stacked at 113, 114, and especially 115.44, where price previously rejected hard.
Indicators:
* EMA/VWAP rejection confirms trend shift.
* MACD has crossed bearish with increasing momentum.
* RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 35), confirming selling pressure.
🔮 GEX Insights – Options Sentiment:
* Heavy CALL Walls sit at 113–116, with the strongest wall at 115.44, now acting as a firm ceiling unless a gamma flip occurs.
* PUT Support builds around 105, with the next wall lower at 100. This structure suggests downside remains open if 105 breaks again.
* IVR is at 33.3, and IVx is falling by 20%, hinting at possible IV crush risk despite price volatility.
* Dealers are likely net short gamma, meaning continued downward movement could fuel more forced selling.
🧠 Thoughts & Strategy:
Bias remains bearish unless bulls can reclaim and close above the 109.2–110 area.
If 105 fails again on high volume, momentum likely drives price toward 100, where the next major PUT Wall sits. Beyond that, 92.64 is the next major structure from previous swing lows.
A bounce is only favorable if 105 holds firm with a high-volume reclaim above VWAP and a bullish signal from RSI or MACD.
🎯 Trade Setups:
Bearish Setup:
* Entry below 105
* Target 1: 100
* Target 2: 92.64
* Stop Loss: Above 109.2
Bullish Countertrend (Risky):
* Entry: 105.50 reclaim with confirmation
* Target: 109.2, then 113
* Stop Loss: Below 104.8
⚠️ Final Take:
NVDA is under serious pressure from both a fundamental shock and a gamma-driven technical breakdown. With GEX showing strong PUT dominance and CALL walls stacked above, the path of least resistance remains down unless bulls reclaim key zones. Keep risk tight and let price confirm.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk wisely.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.