NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire Worthless
Telah dikemas kini
Ever since NVDIA went up after its February earnings call, it seems that social media traders have been afflicted with a fetish for trying to short it. There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, they say, such as NVIDIA is trading at blah blah times P/E, AI doesn't actually need chips beyond the initial machine learning phase, and of course the top reason that everything should be bearish: the Federal Reserve isn't pivoting!
None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside.
The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease.
Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report).
And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around.
The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided.
NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends.
Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say:
NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021.
Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up?
Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO.
And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts.
You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple:
1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want.
2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops
3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace
4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that.
5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts
6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high
7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list.
What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling.
What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers.
In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself.
You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders.
Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high.
Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around.
You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself.
If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.
None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside.
The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease.
Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report).
And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around.
The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided.
NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends.
Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say:
NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021.
Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up?
Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO.
And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts.
You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple:
1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want.
2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops
3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace
4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that.
5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts
6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high
7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list.
What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling.
What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers.
In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself.
You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders.
Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high.
Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around.
You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself.
If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.
Nota
UBS raised NVDIA's price target to $315 from $270 this morning. It seems to me that when the banks release public price targets, those levels are some period of time away from manifesting.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NVIDIA-CORPORATION-57355629/news/UBS-Adjusts-NVIDIA-Price-Target-to-315-From-270-Maintains-Buy-Rating-43349055/
That could amount to a bail out for bears. But it's more in line with the theory that NVIDIA will range to kill options traders for a while.
Nota
Seems the grind sideways theory on NVDIA is correct. Nassy is setting a new high while this thing has traded inside of a 6.5% range all week.Patience is a virtue, and so is staying out of trades you're late to.
Nota
11 trading days, 7 percent range.Find something else to concern yourself with until June lol.
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