NVDA at Inflection Point: Reclaim $158 or Fade to $150?

NVDA at Inflection Point: Reclaim $158 or Fade to $150? Monday Setup Ready 📉📈

🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment:
— The $158.71 level is the highest positive GEX zone and aligns with the 2nd CALL Wall. This is the strongest gamma resistance — the level to beat.
— $157.50 is the 3rd CALL Wall (7.99% GEX) and has acted as a ceiling — NVDA is currently pinned underneath.
— Below, $152.50 to $150 forms a GEX magnet zone, where price is likely to gravitate if weakness sets in.
— The $149 HVL zone also aligns with this gamma pocket, making it a strong downside target.
— Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) is very low at 6.8, which makes options cheap — ideal for buying directional calls or puts.
— Call flow shows a moderate bullish lean (5.4%), but nothing extreme. No signs of a major squeeze — yet.

🔧 Options Setup for Monday–Wednesday:
Bullish Trade Idea:
If NVDA breaks and holds above $158, consider buying a CALL debit spread, such as 158c/165c expiring July 3 or July 5.
Target zones would be $160 and $165 based on GEX7 and GEX6.
Stop-loss would be a move back under $157, especially on rising volume.
Bearish Trade Idea:
If NVDA fails to reclaim $157 and breaks below $155, consider a PUT or a PUT debit spread. 155p to 150p (Jul 3 expiry) would be the play.
First target is $152.50, followed by $149.
Stop if price recovers $157.50 with strong bid.

📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart):

The structure shows clear signs of weakening strength.
— NVDA had a confirmed BOS, but now it’s printing a CHoCH just under the trendline and inside a supply zone.
— Price rejected multiple times near $158.
— Volume spiked into the Friday close but did not confirm breakout — more likely to be profit-taking or gamma hedging.
— The short-term trendline has been broken, and bulls are defending the structure weakly.

📌 Key Intraday Levels to Watch:
— $158.71: Gamma ceiling and major supply zone. Break above this can lead to a squeeze.
— $157.00: Local resistance from Friday.
— $155.02: BOS level and key decision point.
— $152.50–150.00: Gamma magnet and thin volume shelf — likely destination if price breaks.
— $149.00: HVL zone and major demand.

✅ Thoughts and Game Plan:
NVDA looks vulnerable to a fade if bulls fail to reclaim $158 early in the session. It has rallied sharply the past week and is now stalling beneath gamma resistance. The CHoCH under trendline shows supply defending. If Monday opens flat or slightly weak and price stays under $157.50, I expect bears to press it toward $152.50 quickly, maybe even $149 by midweek.
But if buyers step up and push a reclaim above $158.71, the next gamma wall is at $160–$165 — that’s where a breakout can accelerate. In that case, the IV being cheap favors buying calls.
Be patient and don’t front-run Monday open. Let price confirm. The best edge here comes from reacting to the key levels — not guessing them.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, trade your plan, and manage risk accordingly.