i am bearish for PENGUUSDT for now

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Key Observations & Analysis

Structure & Trend

You can see a clear downtrend in June.

Price formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern:

Left Shoulder: Early June low.

Head: Deeper low mid-June.

Right Shoulder: Late June higher low.

This is a bullish reversal pattern.

Trendline Breakout: After the right shoulder formed, price broke the diagonal trendline resistance (marked “trendline breakout”)—signaling bullish momentum.

Breakout & Rally

Strong volume increase confirmed the breakout.

Price trended up rapidly after the breakout, forming higher highs and higher lows.

Recent Price Action

The current price is consolidating in a key supply zone (gray shaded area).

Marked order block: a potential supply zone where smart money may sell.

Price has also made a Market Structure Shift (MSS)—suggesting the uptrend could be losing steam.

HTF POI (Higher Timeframe Point of Interest)

The upper gray box labeled HTF POI between ~0.0167–0.0175.

This is likely a major resistance area.

Price is testing this zone repeatedly.

Liquidity & Target

Trend liquidity has been swept, meaning stops above recent highs have likely been taken.

There is a blue shaded box indicating a potential short scenario:

Entry near the order block.

Target near the prior consolidation support around ~0.008–0.009.

This implies a bias toward a corrective move or retracement.

Volume & RSI

Volume spiked during breakout and has since decreased—often a sign of buyer exhaustion.

RSI around ~58—neutral but no overbought signal yet.

✅ Interpretation Summary
Bullish Arguments:

The inverted head and shoulders broke out cleanly.

Strong trend continuation into higher timeframe resistance.

Bearish Arguments:

Price is consolidating under significant resistance (HTF POI).

Order block + liquidity sweep suggest potential distribution.

Market structure shift indicates sellers are stepping in.

The blue target box shows a potential retracement target near 0.008–0.009.

✅ What This Likely Means

Scenario 1 (Continuation):

If price breaks cleanly above 0.0175 with strong volume, continuation higher is likely.

Scenario 2 (Rejection):

If price keeps rejecting this order block, a short-term pullback toward 0.009 becomes probable.

✅ Tip if You’re Trading This

Watch for a clear reaction in the gray order block area.

Confirmation of rejection could trigger shorts.

A strong close above the HTF POI invalidates the bearish scenario.

Penafian

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