As we warned in our previous analysis, PLTR hit a very dangerous resistance area and since then it has correlated sharply and we are seeing some bearish signals.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, PLTR recently tested the main mid-term support level around $29.83, which aligns with the previous top on July 18. This area now acts as support due to the Principle of Polarity, where a former resistance level becomes support after being breached. The price action shows that PLTR is currently testing this support, and a failure to hold above it could indicate further downside potential. The 21-day EMA is trending downward, indicating short-term bearish momentum, and it is acting as a support level too, making this area a double support zone.

The price previously showed signs of forming a top signal after failing to break higher from the recent highs around $31.34, which also coincides with a long-term resistance level. This resistance was established after closing a gap that was left open for 3.5 years, adding to its significance.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart provides a broader perspective, highlighting that PLTR has been trading within an ascending channel since early 2023. The recent price action shows a failure to break above the upper boundary of this channel, followed by a pullback. The rejection from this upper channel line, combined with the resistance at $31.34 (the gap closure level), suggests a potential top formation.

The weekly candle indicates a reversal from this resistance zone, further supported by the bearish engulfing pattern that has emerged. This bearish sentiment aligns with the top signal identified on the daily chart.

Key Levels to Watch

Support: $29.83 (daily chart), which aligns with the previous top on July 18.
Resistance: $31.34 (weekly chart), where the gap was closed after 3.5 years.
Lower Support Zone: The lower boundary of the ascending channel on the weekly chart, currently around $23.

Summary

PLTR is showing signs of weakness after testing and failing to break above the long-term resistance at $31.34. The rejection from this level, combined with the bearish patterns on both daily and weekly charts, suggests a potential for further downside. For now, we should watch the support at $29.83 closely; a break below this level could lead to a deeper correction towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The overall trend remains within the ascending channel, but caution is advised given the recent top signals.

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Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.

“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore

All the best,
Nathan.
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