QQQ Bull Technical case.

11 Mei 2022

IF we believe that the green channel based on the 2000 bubble top is now being retested, we needed to come down to today's level to retest. The last six weeks are algos driving us there. Typical short mechanical trend, which are always exhausted, and lead to huge reversals when that trend is broken. This is not a crash. The news has been hilariously bias. Leaks and rumors and unnamed sources on tech companies that are even being pushed by Reuters, which is unfortunate. I don't need the market to go up, I trade futures. My point is that either we bounce off this area and run for the new channel next fib, which is a big run, or we fall back into the old channel and risk retesting way way way lower. I don't *believe* that this level of price correction is required. We could just dance up and down on this retest, as is common when attempting to stay out of such a long used channel, but I don't think so. We're setting up a situation in this moment where technically, we either have to run hard on the short covering, or fail heavily. But the weekly pattern is NOT strong for shorts. If we'd had a single down week that closed long and low and below the top of the old channel, I'd be bearish, but this pull back was needed to find short term support that is valid. I see it as normal price discovery. We live in unique times when the QQQ trades patterns like a small cap. Crazy as it is. Sorry people, I agree with Cathie Wood. Her fund is getting hammered but I think she will be proven right in the next few years. 2000 was seeds of potential, but the consensus view on most bubble stocks was negative growth. Right now, most of the tech stocks average out to gross margin growth over the next few years. These are seeds and established trees that found their footing over the last decade and are poised to accelerate. That's my thesis. This bubble will be so much larger than 2000 if we run for the top of this new channel. I mean I'm in my forties and interest rates at this level or higher were normal most of my life, and people still bought homes, etc. Life goes on. We're used to almost no interest rate, which was nice, but not ever going to last forever. The run since the bottom of COVID was purely to get above and out of this old channel, we had to retest it or risk a more fragile run. This is healthy, and the narrative in the news is uninformed and silly. Warren Buffet doesn't put 40 billion back into the US market because he and his team see a crash. He's been out of the market for awhile, waiting to see what sets up after this first exploratory run. Again, just my opinion.

I previously thought we were in a head and shoulders, but we came back to retest this area more directly, which suggests better chance of upside, not worse. Had we gone into a HS, we'd have had a much higher percentage chance of a much greater fall.

12 Mei 2022

Nota

Expected short push to end cycle/panic selling. I don't care about the daily. But I'd really like to see the week close right on that channel top to make me stop sweating that's for sure. The worse this pushes down, the harder the covering will be should we see reversal. I'm holding back on my investment side until after we pull back from a reversal. Day trading wise, I'm looking for entry to run through mid June. Yikes this is exciting times.