Buy super cheap RIOT $45 Puts Apr/16

12 Apr 2021

BTC is looking increasingly binary. There is a lot of energy going either way with this consolidation and BTC looks to be really struggling to find demand to breakout. Google search trends are also showing a signal that interest intensity is declining in the sector.

Buy RIOT Apr/16 $45 calls for 35/contact
If BTC tanks, target $35 (1000/contact). RR of ~29x so it’s worth a small shot.

If one wants to hedge, they could also buy out of the money calls as well.

14 Apr 2021

Nota

This is getting very interesting now.

The US Markets look shakey (NH minus NL) breadth has massive diverged on the run up, and we are finally getting a negative signal in the market. This is also occurring as Bitcoin is attempting to breakout from a larger base, which now looks more prone to fail than not as the market is shifting away from risk-on... and crypto is the ultimate risk-on trade (it does really badly in a risk off environment - opposite of precious metals).

We are now in striking range of $45 and potentially a big win if prices can collapse today or tomorrow. For a 35/contract, this is looking like a great kick at the can. The volatility is high so I recommend having orders to exit contacts staggered as the impulse lower could be quick.

15 Apr 2021

Nota

Exited some contracts at $2.32 (7.5x return) to cover cost plus modest return.
Kept most of the contracts still as could be a big win and you need to make sure you get some big wins every year. 10-15% of trades make all the return for a year while the rest hopefully wash each other out and are breakeven.

16 Apr 2021

Nota

Exited remaining contracts at $0.92 as approaching market close and market looks quiet.