I wanted to post an update on this trade in case anyone is wondering how they should analyze this particular coin from here. First, it's always important to understand the circulating supply of any given asset. For Siacoin, that number is around 27 billion units, so already you should be thinking about just how many coins are in play and how that large number can affect price action in a short amount of time. Since I published this trade idea, price has dropped about 20 Satoshis, and I continue to view this as a buy-in opportunity. The rudimentary analysis here and prospective long trade is still viable UNLESS price comes all the way back down to the 178 Satoshi mark. If that occurs, all bets are off. The 178 mark is imperative because it is the top of wave 1, and once wave 4 touches wave one, the entire pattern is invalidated. Other threats to a profitable long trade here include the possibility of a "truncated" fifth wave, which is basically a fakeout: where the final wave of buying pressure simply runs out of mmmphh! Typically, a truncated wave will not go much higher than the top of the 3rd wave if it reaches there at all, so beware of a weak, sickly fifth wave with limited upward movement, and WATCH your open trades to ensure that you're able to take optimum profits. Happy Hunting!
The last couple weeks I started to feel EW doesn't quite apply to crypto like it does to stocks. So I re-read Elliott's books plus re-read Frost and Prechter carefully, like digesting every page. The main thing I'm coming away with is Elliot and Prechter are stuck in a mindset of continuation. They view all waves as fractal continuations, within larger waves, and can't imagine quantum change. That's a real challenge for crypto because it is a quantum change, and this raises the question where do you define the start then. I'm convinced no one knows this, and we will have to discover this in out own time!