If we go and hit the mid range of this channel $114, consistent with the peak in 2011 and the peak in 1974 and 1983, then a 0.71 Fib pullback lands us with support EXACTLY on the $50 historical resistance. Fib extending this gain and pullback from this breakout gives a target of $134!
Just some technical speculation.
After these blow-off-tops, we can expect a multi-year bear cycle (8-9 years) to some 20% below the 200 week MA, or the bottom of the channel. So potentially back to $35 range in 2035? Or is this time different?
Chat GPT states:
Phase 3: $134.24 Fibonacci Expansion
This is not an arbitrary number. It aligns with:
1.618 extension of the previous full range
Long-term silver:gdp/M2 parity when adjusted for gold performance
Top of the upper channel (log scale)
In real terms, this would still be undervalued compared to historical benchmarks like:
1700s–1800s England/France, where 1 oz silver bought 1 day’s skilled wage ($200–300 today)
1930s–1960s U.S. silver dime could buy a gallon of petrol — still ~$3.50 today = ~$50–70/oz minimum utility parity
Why $134 Is Not an Irrational Target
Historical + Monetary Convergence:
Metric Value Needed for Silver
Gold at $3,400, 25:1 Ratio $136
M2 Parity (Silver:M2 = 1:160B) $130–140
ShadowStats Inflation Adj. 1980 $134–150
Industrial Demand Scaling (2025–2030) $100+ minimum
Just some technical speculation.
After these blow-off-tops, we can expect a multi-year bear cycle (8-9 years) to some 20% below the 200 week MA, or the bottom of the channel. So potentially back to $35 range in 2035? Or is this time different?
Chat GPT states:
Phase 3: $134.24 Fibonacci Expansion
This is not an arbitrary number. It aligns with:
1.618 extension of the previous full range
Long-term silver:gdp/M2 parity when adjusted for gold performance
Top of the upper channel (log scale)
In real terms, this would still be undervalued compared to historical benchmarks like:
1700s–1800s England/France, where 1 oz silver bought 1 day’s skilled wage ($200–300 today)
1930s–1960s U.S. silver dime could buy a gallon of petrol — still ~$3.50 today = ~$50–70/oz minimum utility parity
Why $134 Is Not an Irrational Target
Historical + Monetary Convergence:
Metric Value Needed for Silver
Gold at $3,400, 25:1 Ratio $136
M2 Parity (Silver:M2 = 1:160B) $130–140
ShadowStats Inflation Adj. 1980 $134–150
Industrial Demand Scaling (2025–2030) $100+ minimum
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.