SMC I dont think its ready yet...

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SMCI Daily Chart Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025)

1. Key Observations from the Chart:
• Recent Bounce Off Support: SMCI has rebounded from a key support level around $30.30 and is attempting to hold above its ascending channel.
• Major Support & Resistance Levels Identified:
• Resistance Levels:
• $39.84 – Immediate resistance; must break for upside movement.
• $45.29 – Strong resistance; previous rejection area.
• $48.98 - $63.05 – Major resistance zone; unlikely to be tested tomorrow unless a major rally occurs.
• Support Levels:
• $39.08 – Currently being tested; a break below could push SMCI lower.
• $30.30 – Major long-term support if $39 fails.

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2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns
• Short-Term Uptrend Still Intact: SMCI is trading in a rising channel, but a breakdown could lead to a test of lower levels.
• Moving Averages Acting as Resistance: The 200-day EMA around $40.32 is acting as a key resistance zone.

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3. Indicator Analysis

Stochastic RSI (Middle Panel - Momentum Indicator)
• Currently near neutral levels (~47.78), suggesting room for movement in either direction.
• No confirmed bullish crossover yet, meaning upside momentum is still weak.

MACD (Bottom Panel - Trend & Momentum)
• Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed:
• MACD histogram is slightly negative, signaling weak selling momentum.
• A bullish crossover could indicate a shift in trend.

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4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025)

🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMCI Holds $39 & Breaks Above $40.32 - $39.84)
• Trigger: SMCI bounces off $39.08 and breaks $39.84 with strength
• Target 1: $45.29
• Target 2: $48.98
• Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume).

🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMCI Breaks Below $39.08 & Momentum Continues)
• Trigger: SMCI falls under $39.08 and holds below
• Target 1: $30.30
• Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside).

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Nota

Options Trading Strategies for SMCI

🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMCI Holds $39 & Breaks Above $40.32 - $39.84)

1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMCI $42 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMCI breaks above $39.84 and holds
• Exit Target: $45.29
• Stop-Loss: If SMCI falls back below $39.08

2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk)
• Buy SMCI $40 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMCI $45 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMCI closes above $45

3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMCI $39 Put
• Buy SMCI $35 Put
• Profit if SMCI stays above $39

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🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMCI Breaks Below $39.08 & Moves Toward $30.30)

1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMCI $35 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMCI breaks below $39.08
• Exit Target: $30.30
• Stop-Loss: If SMCI reclaims $40.32

2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy SMCI $38 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMCI $33 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMCI closes below $33

3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMCI $42 Call
• Buy SMCI $45 Call
• Profit if SMCI stays below $42

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5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMCI Tomorrow?
• If SMCI Holds $39 & Reclaims $40.32 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads
• If SMCI Breaks Below $39 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads
• If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out