Weekend Update: Are you an analyst or a trader?
Analysts and Traders require and utilize very different skill sets
Since I analyze Solana using Elliott Wave Theory I will refer to that method within this topic. EWT is a series of rules governing market behavior developed by RN Elliott in 1938.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
When one becomes familiar with these rules, one can apply them to most any market. I say most because in the case of low volume, not widely followed financial instruments, there's simply not enough market participation to apply a herd mentality to. However, when there is a robust participation of traders, the rules of EWT apply and price can be tracked with great precision. Applying these rules to particular price patterns is largely academic. You learn...You Apply. Now I do not want to over simplify this exercise because one can be well versed in EWT and still be wrong in their analysis. This is NOT uncommon. EWT is not a means to tell the future of where price will be....BUT IT IS A PROBABALISTIC TOOL TO HELP GREATLY. Case in point, when I apply EWT to markets I study and see core patterns develop I can determine with a HIGH PROBABILITY of where price is within the wave principle. By doing so, I increase my odds of analyzing trends and seeing the pitfalls in advance. Yes, there are many forms of technical analysis tools that have been developed aside from EWT. Analysts tend to gravitate to different tools until they find the one that works for the them. I think where EWT draws criticism from the analyst community is at times patterns and their ultimate intention sometimes do not reveal themselves easy and not fully until the pattern is complete. Each practitioner may interpret patterns differently at different stages of the wave principle. EWT requires constant application and the ability to reflect on mistakes to get good at it.
A trader, by nature is one of the participants creating the market patterns. Traders will trade based on their own analysis, news, events, fear of loss, and greed to generate wealth. All of these external factors have to managed when executing buy and sell orders. Traders require nerves of steel. If a trader is successful, they have a contingency plan. A stop order I would imagine is used regularly.
I know I'm an analyst. I'm a terrible trader. The in and out of each trade is maddening to me. However I can ride out long-term trends with little activity along the way until price reaches a target area...(vs. an exact price). When I allow fear of loss to enter the calculus, I find it shows up in my analysis and I never end up doing well. Some of my followers may ask..."If I'm not a good trader, how do I emotionally deal with all the wild swings in Solana?" My average cost in Solana is down in the low $80's. I've chosen to stake ALL my Solana, so I can focus on tracking price. It takes time to un-stake due to epochs and whether the Solana was staked in increments. I do plan on selling, and when price is on track to reach a long-term target area I will begin the un-staking process in preparation to sell. In meantime, since I cannot sell immediately, I'm free of emotion to analyze the price activity with somewhat of an unbiased mentality.
My Un-Biased Solana Trade Strategy
The above chart is a daily chart. I don't post daily charts often since I'm now doing 2 posts per day. Typically I'm posting intraday charts. BTW, I plan to regularly post a morning update Monday - Friday and an evening update Monday - Thursday. Then I'll post a Weekend Update.
I have outlined 3 potential outcomes over the course of 2022 in the above chart.
1) Primary Count is where headed to $450 area. That is the 2.618% and the next major Fibonacci Extension area. Solana has extended in every high along the way and I have no information as of yet that will not continue.
2) Purple Alternative: We are range bound all year long. This is a very close second to my primary count. This pattern will develop into a triangle for wave 4 before launching much higher. In my opinion, a triangle only becomes evident once the C wave is complete and the D wave is underway.
3) The Green Alternative is wave 4 is not done and after a trip to $160-$200 level in the short term...wave 4 will ultimately conclude in the $50 area before starting a wave 5. I have no problem holding my current staked position down at $50 because then I will to it aggressively.
I remain flexible to what price tells me so if any my counts change I will inform my followers.
Best to All,
Chris
Since I analyze Solana using Elliott Wave Theory I will refer to that method within this topic. EWT is a series of rules governing market behavior developed by RN Elliott in 1938.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
When one becomes familiar with these rules, one can apply them to most any market. I say most because in the case of low volume, not widely followed financial instruments, there's simply not enough market participation to apply a herd mentality to. However, when there is a robust participation of traders, the rules of EWT apply and price can be tracked with great precision. Applying these rules to particular price patterns is largely academic. You learn...You Apply. Now I do not want to over simplify this exercise because one can be well versed in EWT and still be wrong in their analysis. This is NOT uncommon. EWT is not a means to tell the future of where price will be....BUT IT IS A PROBABALISTIC TOOL TO HELP GREATLY. Case in point, when I apply EWT to markets I study and see core patterns develop I can determine with a HIGH PROBABILITY of where price is within the wave principle. By doing so, I increase my odds of analyzing trends and seeing the pitfalls in advance. Yes, there are many forms of technical analysis tools that have been developed aside from EWT. Analysts tend to gravitate to different tools until they find the one that works for the them. I think where EWT draws criticism from the analyst community is at times patterns and their ultimate intention sometimes do not reveal themselves easy and not fully until the pattern is complete. Each practitioner may interpret patterns differently at different stages of the wave principle. EWT requires constant application and the ability to reflect on mistakes to get good at it.
A trader, by nature is one of the participants creating the market patterns. Traders will trade based on their own analysis, news, events, fear of loss, and greed to generate wealth. All of these external factors have to managed when executing buy and sell orders. Traders require nerves of steel. If a trader is successful, they have a contingency plan. A stop order I would imagine is used regularly.
I know I'm an analyst. I'm a terrible trader. The in and out of each trade is maddening to me. However I can ride out long-term trends with little activity along the way until price reaches a target area...(vs. an exact price). When I allow fear of loss to enter the calculus, I find it shows up in my analysis and I never end up doing well. Some of my followers may ask..."If I'm not a good trader, how do I emotionally deal with all the wild swings in Solana?" My average cost in Solana is down in the low $80's. I've chosen to stake ALL my Solana, so I can focus on tracking price. It takes time to un-stake due to epochs and whether the Solana was staked in increments. I do plan on selling, and when price is on track to reach a long-term target area I will begin the un-staking process in preparation to sell. In meantime, since I cannot sell immediately, I'm free of emotion to analyze the price activity with somewhat of an unbiased mentality.
My Un-Biased Solana Trade Strategy
The above chart is a daily chart. I don't post daily charts often since I'm now doing 2 posts per day. Typically I'm posting intraday charts. BTW, I plan to regularly post a morning update Monday - Friday and an evening update Monday - Thursday. Then I'll post a Weekend Update.
I have outlined 3 potential outcomes over the course of 2022 in the above chart.
1) Primary Count is where headed to $450 area. That is the 2.618% and the next major Fibonacci Extension area. Solana has extended in every high along the way and I have no information as of yet that will not continue.
2) Purple Alternative: We are range bound all year long. This is a very close second to my primary count. This pattern will develop into a triangle for wave 4 before launching much higher. In my opinion, a triangle only becomes evident once the C wave is complete and the D wave is underway.
3) The Green Alternative is wave 4 is not done and after a trip to $160-$200 level in the short term...wave 4 will ultimately conclude in the $50 area before starting a wave 5. I have no problem holding my current staked position down at $50 because then I will to it aggressively.
I remain flexible to what price tells me so if any my counts change I will inform my followers.
Best to All,
Chris
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