$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward

📉 The S&P 500 (SPX / SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.

After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:

Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%

Potential upside: +10%

Expected value: +2%

Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%

Potential downside: -50%

Expected value: -40%

📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility (VIX) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.