Joe Rogan already made Spotify $3.22 Billion + the Future

30 Mei 2020

First off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on an opinion based basis. That being said, here are a few insights. Since Spotify was already mostly on a bullish run, and the market had a chance to retrace from most of the noise, I am using a $160 to $180 price as a metric not $190. If you look at 20/160 you get 0.125. Now I am going to multiple by 0.78 as hype multiple rather than attributing all that growth to just the deal. 78% is still way too generous, but I think it is decent given how popular Joe Rogan is. 0.125*0.78 is coincidentally right on 0.0975. I multiple that by the current market cap and get 3.22452 billion. I seen this YouTuber do a video saying the Joe Rogan deal made Spotify $5 billion. Personally, I understand the reasoning behind his metric, but he didn't consider Spotify was already bullish and that not everyone trading Spotify are Joe Rogan fans. He also didn't give a decent shortening or reaction time. Joe Rogan contributed to the a major push in the rally continuation. I think it is fair to say around a 78% push pre contributing to sentiment reaction. Also Spotify's ROI for a $100 million dollar deal is 32x in a short time period which is for every $1 you have $32. That means literally 3100%. If Spotify made the same deals every 11 days or so, and profit kept compounding over and over again a year, that would be an annualized ROI percentage of 14,847,931,113,934,977,527,395,976,847,246,204,891,384,177,320,001,536%. That means that a deal like this is extremely rare. Spotify made one of the best partnership deals a content platform could make, and likely they wouldn't be able to find creators that popular in which they can offer that same amount too for a really long time. Untop of all this, Spotify said they want Joe Rogan's clips migrated to their platform. I myself am a creator who posts content on Spotify. If Spotify decided to allow video integration, it can easily even annihilate companies the likes of the size of YouTube. CEO Susan Wojcick's management of YouTube included higher attention to many mainstream media sources over small creators (trying to be cable competitive). YouTube also been having a broken content management and Copyright system for a while in many creator's voiced opinions. The whole way things played out is most likely YouTube ruined its edge factor and didn't differentiate itself. Joe Rogan was probably already planning an exit, and Spotify found an opportunity due to what one can call a competitor's lackluster management style. I think a realistic target in the future if Spotify starts rolling out video updates and doing all this is a long target of $325 within a year or so. It would be interesting to see how that plays out.