Elliot Wave Noob. Think we are in Wave 5 (the sucker wave up). Wave 3 is shortest - I know this violates official rules. If we are in wave 5, then top is around 2360. Comments. Again, learning wave theory. Trying to apply it, on paper.
Marc Miller, Technical Analyst, at UBS thinks we are in wave 5 too. But, I think he is using the next larger wave than me. Marc predicts wave 5 will top out between 2300 and 2400. (It was hard to read the numbers on his chart). For anyway who cares, google on Marc Miller, Wave 5 and UBS, you should be able to find his wave charts.
This is wave 5 in wave 5. Next top between 2320 and 2360. All three rules apply.
Very unlikely. Notice that at your orange dot there's a triangle with an apex at 2156. Counting upwards from there to 1 at 2213, wave 3 at 2277 was 1.618*1, so if a 5th wave is developing it will very likely be the same size as W1 and might be the 5th of 3.
@kunsan, thanks for comments. Will watch to see what happens next. My rule book said that if w3 < 1.68 * w1, then w5 = w1, with 68% chance. Can see parts of your point. My model allowed for w3 as shortest wave, which is non-standard. Model based on 10 year history for 100 stocks at 30 minute intervals. There was a secondary option for w5 = 0.62 * w3, too, but that was a much rarer case (10%). I'm only using five fib numbers: 0.38, 0.5, 0.62, 1, and 1.68 in my rules. A work in progress.
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