SP:SPX   Indeks S&P 500
Elliot Wave Noob. Think we are in Wave 5 (the sucker wave up). Wave 3 is shortest - I know this violates official rules. If we are in wave 5, then top is around 2360. Comments. Again, learning wave theory. Trying to apply it, on paper.
Komen: Marc Miller, Technical Analyst, at UBS thinks we are in wave 5 too. But, I think he is using the next larger wave than me. Marc predicts wave 5 will top out between 2300 and 2400. (It was hard to read the numbers on his chart). For anyway who cares, google on Marc Miller, Wave 5 and UBS, you should be able to find his wave charts.
Komen: This is wave 5 in wave 5. Next top between 2320 and 2360. All three rules apply.
Very unlikely. Notice that at your orange dot there's a triangle with an apex at 2156. Counting upwards from there to 1 at 2213, wave 3 at 2277 was 1.618*1, so if a 5th wave is developing it will very likely be the same size as W1 and might be the 5th of 3.
Balas
@kunsan, thanks for comments. Will watch to see what happens next. My rule book said that if w3 < 1.68 * w1, then w5 = w1, with 68% chance. Can see parts of your point. My model allowed for w3 as shortest wave, which is non-standard. Model based on 10 year history for 100 stocks at 30 minute intervals. There was a secondary option for w5 = 0.62 * w3, too, but that was a much rarer case (10%). I'm only using five fib numbers: 0.38, 0.5, 0.62, 1, and 1.68 in my rules. A work in progress.
Balas
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