While the futures market has yet to break into new all-time high territory, the previously discussed bearish micro setup has now been invalidated. In its place, we’re witnessing a complex, overlapping advance—creeping steadily toward the prior highs in the S&P 500 (ES).
At the micro level, I currently see no compelling bearish setup. However, this grinding upward move—lacking strong conviction from either buyers or sellers—is not necessarily bullish. In fact, it’s a hallmark of a potentially dangerous pattern: a primary degree ending diagonal.
If my interpretation is correct, both the “orange” and “purple” wave counts point to the same ominous conclusion. They suggest that what we're seeing could culminate in a sharp, possibly violent reversal—one that would ultimately retrace back to where this entire primary wave began. For reference, that’s just above 4,000, marked by the conclusion of Primary Wave 4 in October 2022.
This is the moment for caution—not after the damage is done.
Yes, we may push into new all-time highs. But within this fragile and overlapping structure, that outcome is far from guaranteed. Even if we get there, the looming question remains:
At what cost?
At the micro level, I currently see no compelling bearish setup. However, this grinding upward move—lacking strong conviction from either buyers or sellers—is not necessarily bullish. In fact, it’s a hallmark of a potentially dangerous pattern: a primary degree ending diagonal.
If my interpretation is correct, both the “orange” and “purple” wave counts point to the same ominous conclusion. They suggest that what we're seeing could culminate in a sharp, possibly violent reversal—one that would ultimately retrace back to where this entire primary wave began. For reference, that’s just above 4,000, marked by the conclusion of Primary Wave 4 in October 2022.
This is the moment for caution—not after the damage is done.
Yes, we may push into new all-time highs. But within this fragile and overlapping structure, that outcome is far from guaranteed. Even if we get there, the looming question remains:
At what cost?
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.