SPX - Between the S & R
Telah dikemas kini
Back below the 200MA, sitting between some Support and Resistance,
Will we break up or break down?
No Significant play yet.
- Sitting in prodominantly, industrials, commodities, precious metals, and some inverse ETF's
With inflation picked to have peaked with some commodities softening next months CPI print may come in lower.
My thoughts are as follows
:- If we break up and out of the resistance we will have alot of fuel (cash on sidelines) ready to plow back into markets which I suspect would lead into a huge blow off top, 1929 style.
:- Or a breakdown below support would cause the algo's to sell and this triggering outflows from funds who need to perform quarterly to keep up with the competition and benchmark returns.
If one manager is selling the others have to jump onboard that ship, causing a waterfall event. Hence why when markets roll over they go down quickly,
Naturally humans are Optimistic, we climb a wall of worry (slow grind up) but when we roll over we generally jump out of the top floor window (quick drop down)
It's the long drawn out bear markets lasting 6 months+ of continually having small up periods with more intense downsides, causing emotional damage and usually the last big drop of a bear market usually coincides with a bottom, this is the point investors can't take anymore and they throw in the towel, this is right when valuations make a hell of alot more sense. zombie companies have been flushed out, bad actors have had to fold, debt fuelled, zero profit tech companies have to lay off management as their stock price is down 70%+ (Check majority of Nasdaq stocks, they are already down well over 70%)
Robinhood had announced laying off 9% of staff.
We will wait and see which way we go
Will we break up or break down?
No Significant play yet.
- Sitting in prodominantly, industrials, commodities, precious metals, and some inverse ETF's
With inflation picked to have peaked with some commodities softening next months CPI print may come in lower.
My thoughts are as follows
:- If we break up and out of the resistance we will have alot of fuel (cash on sidelines) ready to plow back into markets which I suspect would lead into a huge blow off top, 1929 style.
:- Or a breakdown below support would cause the algo's to sell and this triggering outflows from funds who need to perform quarterly to keep up with the competition and benchmark returns.
If one manager is selling the others have to jump onboard that ship, causing a waterfall event. Hence why when markets roll over they go down quickly,
Naturally humans are Optimistic, we climb a wall of worry (slow grind up) but when we roll over we generally jump out of the top floor window (quick drop down)
It's the long drawn out bear markets lasting 6 months+ of continually having small up periods with more intense downsides, causing emotional damage and usually the last big drop of a bear market usually coincides with a bottom, this is the point investors can't take anymore and they throw in the towel, this is right when valuations make a hell of alot more sense. zombie companies have been flushed out, bad actors have had to fold, debt fuelled, zero profit tech companies have to lay off management as their stock price is down 70%+ (Check majority of Nasdaq stocks, they are already down well over 70%)
Robinhood had announced laying off 9% of staff.
We will wait and see which way we go
Nota
Return to the scene of the crime?
and continue lower?
Looking to accumulate further inverse ETF's on bounce.
Watching FED chair Powell on a policy reversal
Nota
Thesis playing out well, looking for a return to the 50DMA, will accumulate more inverse ETFS.
Nota
Started to return to 50DMA - with the 2nd quarter US earnings coming out in 3.5 weeks I want to have a hedge in before hand. I am expecting weak results and dont want to miss the trade, even though I am under the 50DMA
Penafian
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