Update to 
We'll go section by section through the original plan (Linked above).
>First things first, the null hypothesis for this is price trading over 4190. That'd trigger the system stop loss area for this strategy. This is valid under. Above there we have a full re-write of plans.
First things first, the null hypothesis on entries is now 3840. Over 3840 will revert to the original plan of building swing short position while concurrently trading long against it to remain price neutral.
>At this point I want to start actively betting on a large crash. A drop of about 30%. Retracement. Then a second drop taking us under the March 2020 low. If you've followed me for any length of time, you'll know my premise has always been the crash would take us under the March 2020 low. I've said this all during the late 2021 rally.
Took positions for this through the week. Mostly into the high of Thursday and into the closing hours of Friday.
>I think the optimal short comes around 4080 - 4100. I think it might be a second retest of the 161 area.
I still have this in mind for my risk scenario, but you trade what you see and not what you think. For bulls to tag this level they'll have to break the norms of the downtrend. The race is not always to the swift nor the fight to the strong, but that's the way to bet.
>I also feel it would be fitting for the move to not happen for another week or few. Give people enough time to think it's safe to get back into the water and grind out the shorts before the big moves comes. This is a combo of basic market norms and game theory - It's easier to get liquidity by grinding the market slowly higher, and the market will seek liquidity before it drops (Assuming it will). Markets do that.
Again, something that I keep in mind for my risk scenario and contingency plans. The market often takes a bit of time to trap in bulls. With that being said, I didn't get the impression we were short of bulls late into the week. A lot of people were telling me I should be a bull into the end of last week. And I see many macro bears calling for a bigger bear market rally. So bulls might be trapped already. Through grinding the market slowly higher Thursday/Friday, the market would have got liquidity - if that's what it was looking for. New bulls came in. A lot of bears quit.
>With this all being said, if the drop would be 30% and the upside move has 3% to it - do I want to miss the 30% move for a 3% improvement on my entry? Not much ... I probably want to take up light positions swing short and then take up short term bullish positions to put me market neutral in all instances except from a bear break (In which case I lose small bull trades which is a nominal price to pay for insurance ).
This is still the general premise of positioning at this level. If I can protect my upside positions to a reasonable extent and I have 1:10 on the possible downswing relative to my expected risk zone - it's not very rational to be stubborn in the positioning price when the market has rejected resistance. I'll take position now and then run through the steps to deal with/exit it if it goes bad.
>This is probably the plan. Build up swing shorts (Hopefully at progressively better prices. We call that "DCA" when bulls do it. Gets called less flattering things for bears, usually - but it's the same strategy) and I want to concurrently run long positions to keep me mostly market neutral (Skewed towards net long while higher lows are holding on small charts).
Executed on this. Built up my shorts into the pre-indicated zones. Did it at progressively better prices. Not many people said, "Hey, look there's a guy doing some DCA". Many less flattering things were said. Which I've learned is to be expected. If we make breaks above the 3840 zone I'll do things to put me market neutral and continue to build up my shorts to 4070.
>If/when we see an early rejection from this zone, I want to see the market SLOWLY slanting off. It does not have to crash all within 5 minutes of me going short. Markets usually top very slowly and then suddenly break viciously. I want to see us slanting off. Trending down with lots of false rallies and if/when I see this I'll start to take my aggressive lotto bets.
Market was very consistent with this after making the rejection. We've failed to make new highs and had a lot of rallies. These may or may not become false rallies, but either way I have to make my decisions before the market moves and positioned as per the plan into these rallies. Progressively getting into more and more speculative bets as we filled more of the conditions.
>This is when I'll start to think about things like 3000 strike puts (Shorting 4100 - 4200 call spreads to offset my lotto bets). From the quiet slanting range, that's where the crash would start if we were following typical crash models.
Took these. Have mainly 3500, 3400 and 3300 strikes. Got some super lottos too. Also shorted call spreads against 3850 - 3950 to offset my theta etc and make ranges net profitable.
>Target one swing one is 2800. I'll probably start offloading my positions 2900.
And this is still the target. Currently fully positioned for this.
We'll go section by section through the original plan (Linked above).
>First things first, the null hypothesis for this is price trading over 4190. That'd trigger the system stop loss area for this strategy. This is valid under. Above there we have a full re-write of plans.
First things first, the null hypothesis on entries is now 3840. Over 3840 will revert to the original plan of building swing short position while concurrently trading long against it to remain price neutral.
>At this point I want to start actively betting on a large crash. A drop of about 30%. Retracement. Then a second drop taking us under the March 2020 low. If you've followed me for any length of time, you'll know my premise has always been the crash would take us under the March 2020 low. I've said this all during the late 2021 rally.
Took positions for this through the week. Mostly into the high of Thursday and into the closing hours of Friday.
>I think the optimal short comes around 4080 - 4100. I think it might be a second retest of the 161 area.
I still have this in mind for my risk scenario, but you trade what you see and not what you think. For bulls to tag this level they'll have to break the norms of the downtrend. The race is not always to the swift nor the fight to the strong, but that's the way to bet.
>I also feel it would be fitting for the move to not happen for another week or few. Give people enough time to think it's safe to get back into the water and grind out the shorts before the big moves comes. This is a combo of basic market norms and game theory - It's easier to get liquidity by grinding the market slowly higher, and the market will seek liquidity before it drops (Assuming it will). Markets do that.
Again, something that I keep in mind for my risk scenario and contingency plans. The market often takes a bit of time to trap in bulls. With that being said, I didn't get the impression we were short of bulls late into the week. A lot of people were telling me I should be a bull into the end of last week. And I see many macro bears calling for a bigger bear market rally. So bulls might be trapped already. Through grinding the market slowly higher Thursday/Friday, the market would have got liquidity - if that's what it was looking for. New bulls came in. A lot of bears quit.
>With this all being said, if the drop would be 30% and the upside move has 3% to it - do I want to miss the 30% move for a 3% improvement on my entry? Not much ... I probably want to take up light positions swing short and then take up short term bullish positions to put me market neutral in all instances except from a bear break (In which case I lose small bull trades which is a nominal price to pay for insurance ).
This is still the general premise of positioning at this level. If I can protect my upside positions to a reasonable extent and I have 1:10 on the possible downswing relative to my expected risk zone - it's not very rational to be stubborn in the positioning price when the market has rejected resistance. I'll take position now and then run through the steps to deal with/exit it if it goes bad.
>This is probably the plan. Build up swing shorts (Hopefully at progressively better prices. We call that "DCA" when bulls do it. Gets called less flattering things for bears, usually - but it's the same strategy) and I want to concurrently run long positions to keep me mostly market neutral (Skewed towards net long while higher lows are holding on small charts).
Executed on this. Built up my shorts into the pre-indicated zones. Did it at progressively better prices. Not many people said, "Hey, look there's a guy doing some DCA". Many less flattering things were said. Which I've learned is to be expected. If we make breaks above the 3840 zone I'll do things to put me market neutral and continue to build up my shorts to 4070.
>If/when we see an early rejection from this zone, I want to see the market SLOWLY slanting off. It does not have to crash all within 5 minutes of me going short. Markets usually top very slowly and then suddenly break viciously. I want to see us slanting off. Trending down with lots of false rallies and if/when I see this I'll start to take my aggressive lotto bets.
Market was very consistent with this after making the rejection. We've failed to make new highs and had a lot of rallies. These may or may not become false rallies, but either way I have to make my decisions before the market moves and positioned as per the plan into these rallies. Progressively getting into more and more speculative bets as we filled more of the conditions.
>This is when I'll start to think about things like 3000 strike puts (Shorting 4100 - 4200 call spreads to offset my lotto bets). From the quiet slanting range, that's where the crash would start if we were following typical crash models.
Took these. Have mainly 3500, 3400 and 3300 strikes. Got some super lottos too. Also shorted call spreads against 3850 - 3950 to offset my theta etc and make ranges net profitable.
>Target one swing one is 2800. I'll probably start offloading my positions 2900.
And this is still the target. Currently fully positioned for this.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.