📉 S&P500 – 6th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). By Friday’s close, a triple top formed at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, as expected last week.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the double-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. The next pivot forecast is February 24. Based on timing, I cautiously assume that it may work as a correction of Friday’s movement, followed by a downward reversal from the extreme forecast on March 3.
⚠️ There is a high probability that this base cycle will be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I anticipated this in early January. A bull market does not form a third peak within the first six weeks of the current base cycle. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts.
⚠️ The most interesting event is expected on the extreme forecast of March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. The start of retrograde Venus usually triggers a market crash, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility starting March 17. However, I do not expect a correction of more than 20%, as a major crash is not likely before next year.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the double-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. The next pivot forecast is February 24. Based on timing, I cautiously assume that it may work as a correction of Friday’s movement, followed by a downward reversal from the extreme forecast on March 3.
⚠️ There is a high probability that this base cycle will be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I anticipated this in early January. A bull market does not form a third peak within the first six weeks of the current base cycle. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts.
⚠️ The most interesting event is expected on the extreme forecast of March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. The start of retrograde Venus usually triggers a market crash, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility starting March 17. However, I do not expect a correction of more than 20%, as a major crash is not likely before next year.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.