SPX is trending up clearly, and is ready to go even higher before starting a retracement or consolidation period for a few weeks, probably after earnings are out for all companies. I'm long a few select individual stocks, following my main investing themes for this year, and not holding direct exposure to passive funds or index or sector ETFs personally. Refer to related ideas for my long term forecast and other ideas for SPY/SPX.
Sentiment has been negative throughout this whole rally, peaking right before and after the elections results came out in November 2016. It has been a very interesting year, and things will continue to be exciting from a trading perspective. As an investor, I'm interested in riding big emerging trends in unloved stocks, and trying to stay away from high valuations in tech overall. I have a sizeable gold position, 25% of my net worth since it was at $1220, but I'm not a declared bear like most people in gold -who have been either losing, or missing out on the stocks, AND crypto rally since 2009-. I think it's good to keep a clear head, and be open to new data to adjust your views. Technicals show we can rally significantly in the short term, and get a consolidation later on, so be ready to hedge once more by then. I'll update this chart when the time comes.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Komen
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We may see a correction here, we are approaching the end of the weekly trend, so, if not hedged, start piling on them.
Komen
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SPX topping here or later this month, but it's safer to 'short' being in hedges Maybe shorting individual stocks.
This analysis teach a lot, specially to have an open mind because the environment is always evolving.
josephtse
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Paul Ryan said the tax reform passing is pricing in assumptions of a foward PE of 19. We are at 18.4ish right now, so he is saying when tax reform passes, that only puts the S&P at 2640 to 2650 range. After that, I see a correction coming as the central banks' balance sheets significantly decrease in December, vs Oct and Nov of this year. In 2018, US central bank balance sheet will decrease for the entire year and at a faster pace every 3 months. So it's up to earnings this quarter to keep the market buoyed above 2640, which I don't see happening, as margins have already begun to shrink.