A journey back to 1990s........
Many analysts talk about 1929, 1987 and 2001 bear market crashes.
But upon closer examination, there is a small bear market in 1990. It fulfils a bear market with a 20.11% drop. That is not the point. What is interesting is it took only 3 months to recover.
Going to the latest price action, if this is not a bear market rally but a V shape recovery as some had strongly believed, then we would have created a new history.
An unprecedented history of market recovery if we indeed continue on this bullish journey! The fall was on 20 Feb and we recovered on 24 Apr, approximately 2 months, beating the record of 1990 of 3 months.
I did several polls within my network. Some are shorting, others are creating new accounts to get into the market while others are too afraid to step inside now. So, roughly, fairly balanced. How will the end result be ?
What are the probabilities ?
1. Bullish - continue to go higher
2. Sideway
3. Bearish
4. First go to 2 then 1
5. First go to 2 then 3
6. 1 then 2 then 3
7. 3 then 2 then 1 again
Oh my God, I am going bonkers just thinking of the permutation it can possibly have.
Forecasting is fun, if you do not take it too seriously as it train your thoughts. It makes you go back in time that you would not have visited or reasons to go to. It makes you study the charts and identify patterns that you have not seen before. Like the gap down in 1990 chart which took 6 months to fill up.
Wait, before you go, tomorrow is first day of May. Isn't this the season of "Sell in May" ?
Whatever ...............
But upon closer examination, there is a small bear market in 1990. It fulfils a bear market with a 20.11% drop. That is not the point. What is interesting is it took only 3 months to recover.
Going to the latest price action, if this is not a bear market rally but a V shape recovery as some had strongly believed, then we would have created a new history.
An unprecedented history of market recovery if we indeed continue on this bullish journey! The fall was on 20 Feb and we recovered on 24 Apr, approximately 2 months, beating the record of 1990 of 3 months.
I did several polls within my network. Some are shorting, others are creating new accounts to get into the market while others are too afraid to step inside now. So, roughly, fairly balanced. How will the end result be ?
What are the probabilities ?
1. Bullish - continue to go higher
2. Sideway
3. Bearish
4. First go to 2 then 1
5. First go to 2 then 3
6. 1 then 2 then 3
7. 3 then 2 then 1 again
Oh my God, I am going bonkers just thinking of the permutation it can possibly have.
Forecasting is fun, if you do not take it too seriously as it train your thoughts. It makes you go back in time that you would not have visited or reasons to go to. It makes you study the charts and identify patterns that you have not seen before. Like the gap down in 1990 chart which took 6 months to fill up.
Wait, before you go, tomorrow is first day of May. Isn't this the season of "Sell in May" ?
Whatever ...............
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