Indeks S&P 500Singkat
We ain't seen nothing yet on SPX: 2008 vs 2022
If history repeats itself - we ain't seen nothing yet.
The higher yields and the recession fears have pushed SPX over 20% down. We saw a similar selloff in late 2007, when market saw a recession approaching. That was just the beginning. It bounced up with 15% to continue downwards afterwards.
During the recession / global crisis in 2008 and 2009, we saw the total index selling of over 50%. When applying same ratio's here, SPX can sell of to the march covid low of 2020.
Of course, down the way there will be a lot off buying, catch the bottom, maybe lowering yields, anything can happen.
But, after the 3200-3400 support zone, there is not much holding it till 2200. Also look how RSI on the monthly has a long while to go before it's oversold.
Also note the similarities: in 2008 and now we have the 200 SMA/EMA weekly levels as decent support keeping it up for now, but market reverses when hitting 100 SMA/EMA weekly and crashes once it has broken 200 weekly again.
Current levels around 3800-3900 is an ok sell level with 4100 as SL. Aim first for 3400, and keep further level in mind.
The higher yields and the recession fears have pushed SPX over 20% down. We saw a similar selloff in late 2007, when market saw a recession approaching. That was just the beginning. It bounced up with 15% to continue downwards afterwards.
During the recession / global crisis in 2008 and 2009, we saw the total index selling of over 50%. When applying same ratio's here, SPX can sell of to the march covid low of 2020.
Of course, down the way there will be a lot off buying, catch the bottom, maybe lowering yields, anything can happen.
But, after the 3200-3400 support zone, there is not much holding it till 2200. Also look how RSI on the monthly has a long while to go before it's oversold.
Also note the similarities: in 2008 and now we have the 200 SMA/EMA weekly levels as decent support keeping it up for now, but market reverses when hitting 100 SMA/EMA weekly and crashes once it has broken 200 weekly again.
Current levels around 3800-3900 is an ok sell level with 4100 as SL. Aim first for 3400, and keep further level in mind.
Penafian
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