S&P needs to hold THIS support level to maintain bullish bias
The debt limit stalemate continues as we approach the Memorial Day weekend. With the June 1 deadline now just a stone’s throw away, the pressure is growing on both sides to strike a deal. Will the markets stage a recovery in the event of a deal? That is highly likely. But whether that potential recovery will hold, is what I am not too sure about.
If you take out technology out of the equation and not look at the Nasdaq 100, you will realise the markets are not looking very good for the bulls, and this is not just because of the debt limit uncertainty. This is hardly surprising, thanks to the ongoing weakness in commodity prices, concerns over China and rising bets that the Fed may tighten its belt even more.
Before discussing why markets are falling, let’s take a look at the charts of the S&P 500.
S&P 500 technical analysis
The index is testing a key long-term inflection point circa 4140, a level which was previously support and resistance on several occasions. A decisive break below last week’s low at 4108 would be a significant technical development for the bears.
The index has already broken below a short-term bullish trend line and 21-day exponential moving average, which also happen to come in around that 4140 area. At the time of writing, it was testing these areas from underneath.
A close below 4108 could pave the way for a move down to 4050 next.
For the bulls, well there’s not too much to cheer right now and the best course of action for them is to sit on their hands and await a key bullish reversal. It could be a long wait. A daily close above 4140 would be an ideal outcome for them, as things stand.
Why are stocks struggling?
While the Nasdaq may have hit a new high for the year, thanks to Nvidia, other global indices have continued to struggle today. The German DAX, for example, relinquished its entire gains from last week, before hitting a new low earlier this morning. The FTSE also displayed similar characteristics. Chinese mainland shares turned negative on the year earlier this week. Worries over global growth, US debt ceiling and sticky inflation are all unnerving investors.
The focus remains firmly fixated on the US debt limit situation. A sell-off in the markets was always going to be needed to put pressure on the two sides to make a compromise. Negotiators are still far apart on key issues. They must act quickly to avert a default – and to stop the market turmoil. But have they left it all too late?
It is not just stocks. Sentiment towards nearly all risk assets has turned negative quite abruptly this week. Concerns are on the rise about the health of the Chinese and European economies and fears about the US debt ceiling. You also have a Fed still keen to tighten its policy further, while inflation in some parts of the world continues to remain very high, causing all sorts of problems and hurting the pockets of consumers. Businesses are not doing very well either, especially in the manufacturing sector, as we found out on Tuesday with those weak PMI numbers.
Will we see a relief rally on debt deal?
Well, if we see some concrete signs a debt deal will be reached, I would be expecting a sharp relief rally in the major indices. Whether or not the spoos would go back above 4200 in that event is something I wouldn't bet my life on, simply because there are so many other risks to consider - from China slowing down to the Fed potentially raising rates even further.
The latest from Washington is that it is going to the wire, once again. US House speaker McCarthy said he doesn’t know if they will have a debt deal today.
NVIDIA powers Nasdaq higher – for now
The only bright spot is technology right now after NVIDIA shares jumped a massive 25% on the back of its strong results. But if markets continue to struggle, I don’t think technology would be immune to a sell-off. If anything, rising yields are not meant to be good for stocks that carry low div yields, like many of those found in the Nasdaq. So, watch out for a false breakout on the Nasdaq.
US economy more resilient than expected
Meanwhile, there was more evidence of to suggest the Fed might, after all, raise interest rates further, or at least put off rate cuts for longer. US GDP came in at 1.3% compared to 1.1% expected and reported initially. The GDP deflator was 4.2%, higher than 4.0% expected. Jobless claims surprised, too, printing 229K vs. 249K expected. Following the release of the data, bond yields rose further, as too did the dollar.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
If you take out technology out of the equation and not look at the Nasdaq 100, you will realise the markets are not looking very good for the bulls, and this is not just because of the debt limit uncertainty. This is hardly surprising, thanks to the ongoing weakness in commodity prices, concerns over China and rising bets that the Fed may tighten its belt even more.
Before discussing why markets are falling, let’s take a look at the charts of the S&P 500.
S&P 500 technical analysis
The index is testing a key long-term inflection point circa 4140, a level which was previously support and resistance on several occasions. A decisive break below last week’s low at 4108 would be a significant technical development for the bears.
The index has already broken below a short-term bullish trend line and 21-day exponential moving average, which also happen to come in around that 4140 area. At the time of writing, it was testing these areas from underneath.
A close below 4108 could pave the way for a move down to 4050 next.
For the bulls, well there’s not too much to cheer right now and the best course of action for them is to sit on their hands and await a key bullish reversal. It could be a long wait. A daily close above 4140 would be an ideal outcome for them, as things stand.
Why are stocks struggling?
While the Nasdaq may have hit a new high for the year, thanks to Nvidia, other global indices have continued to struggle today. The German DAX, for example, relinquished its entire gains from last week, before hitting a new low earlier this morning. The FTSE also displayed similar characteristics. Chinese mainland shares turned negative on the year earlier this week. Worries over global growth, US debt ceiling and sticky inflation are all unnerving investors.
The focus remains firmly fixated on the US debt limit situation. A sell-off in the markets was always going to be needed to put pressure on the two sides to make a compromise. Negotiators are still far apart on key issues. They must act quickly to avert a default – and to stop the market turmoil. But have they left it all too late?
It is not just stocks. Sentiment towards nearly all risk assets has turned negative quite abruptly this week. Concerns are on the rise about the health of the Chinese and European economies and fears about the US debt ceiling. You also have a Fed still keen to tighten its policy further, while inflation in some parts of the world continues to remain very high, causing all sorts of problems and hurting the pockets of consumers. Businesses are not doing very well either, especially in the manufacturing sector, as we found out on Tuesday with those weak PMI numbers.
Will we see a relief rally on debt deal?
Well, if we see some concrete signs a debt deal will be reached, I would be expecting a sharp relief rally in the major indices. Whether or not the spoos would go back above 4200 in that event is something I wouldn't bet my life on, simply because there are so many other risks to consider - from China slowing down to the Fed potentially raising rates even further.
The latest from Washington is that it is going to the wire, once again. US House speaker McCarthy said he doesn’t know if they will have a debt deal today.
NVIDIA powers Nasdaq higher – for now
The only bright spot is technology right now after NVIDIA shares jumped a massive 25% on the back of its strong results. But if markets continue to struggle, I don’t think technology would be immune to a sell-off. If anything, rising yields are not meant to be good for stocks that carry low div yields, like many of those found in the Nasdaq. So, watch out for a false breakout on the Nasdaq.
US economy more resilient than expected
Meanwhile, there was more evidence of to suggest the Fed might, after all, raise interest rates further, or at least put off rate cuts for longer. US GDP came in at 1.3% compared to 1.1% expected and reported initially. The GDP deflator was 4.2%, higher than 4.0% expected. Jobless claims surprised, too, printing 229K vs. 249K expected. Following the release of the data, bond yields rose further, as too did the dollar.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.