$SPY bearish, to break April lows?

5 Jun

Most people are thinking that we'll see a correction that goes back to the $560 area and then from there, we'll go to new highs. They also don't think it's likely that we'll retest the lows from April and think it's nearly impossible that we'll break the lows.

However, my base case is that we will break the lows. Yes, in the past, most dips like the one in April were good buying opportunities, but the chart looks different here.

You can see that ever since April, all we've done is consolidate up into a rising wedge.

We look set to break down from that in the coming days. If we do break down and are unable to reclaim the highs, then I think my base case will become the highest probability outcome.

I think it's likely that the move down will take us to the $424- 402 levels. Let's see what happens.

10 Jun

Nota

Bought some $585P for 7/11 and $600P for 7/18 when price hit $602.21.

Demark 13s triggered yesterday both combo and sequential on SPY and QQQ. Feel like we should see a flip down in the coming days.