Weekly $SPY H&S Right Shoulder Forming?

I have a longer term target of 160 on the $SPY. I think the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern is just now forming at 202, with a neck line at 182. This also coincides with the thesis that the 160 breakout from the October 2007 peak in June 2013 must be back tested prior to further gains. The 50 week moving average has peaked and is rolling over, another bearish sign. This is a long term bear market forming, possibly bottoming at 160 support mid-2017.