SPY Weekly -- A Gann look
After the all time high of 479.98 on 1/2022, we draw a Gann Box and fan from the COVID low on 3/2020 to the high on 1/2022. The 45 degree line is the red ray, and according to Gann, any price action below this line is a challenge to overcome to the upside.
We achieved price=time equilibrium at 50% retrace (point A), 348.11 on 10/13/2022. After that, a nice run to 459.44 (right circle and point B), and a pivot point. This was a failed attempt to overcome the prior pivot, 462.07 (left circle). It also failed here to break out above the 2/1 ray.
We are currently under some distribution, and I am expecting an eventual move from point B to C to 402.31 on or around 10/30/2023. This would be a 50% retrace from point B, about 12.4% decline. It is also possible that we could terminate earlier at another pivot, 416.49, which would be a 9.3% decline from point B.
We now sit firmly in the 2/1 and 3/1 rays. As these rays widen with time, the challenge to break to the upside increases. From C, I see a rebound from point C to point D (a 1.27% Gartley extension) to 471.06 on or about 5/20/2024, 8.92 points below the all-time high. As this is often a time of seasonal distribution, I do not see a new all-time high here, and maybe for some time to come.
On the flip side, 2024 is an election year, which often bodes well for markets, but I see many other macro obstacles that need to be overcome.
We achieved price=time equilibrium at 50% retrace (point A), 348.11 on 10/13/2022. After that, a nice run to 459.44 (right circle and point B), and a pivot point. This was a failed attempt to overcome the prior pivot, 462.07 (left circle). It also failed here to break out above the 2/1 ray.
We are currently under some distribution, and I am expecting an eventual move from point B to C to 402.31 on or around 10/30/2023. This would be a 50% retrace from point B, about 12.4% decline. It is also possible that we could terminate earlier at another pivot, 416.49, which would be a 9.3% decline from point B.
We now sit firmly in the 2/1 and 3/1 rays. As these rays widen with time, the challenge to break to the upside increases. From C, I see a rebound from point C to point D (a 1.27% Gartley extension) to 471.06 on or about 5/20/2024, 8.92 points below the all-time high. As this is often a time of seasonal distribution, I do not see a new all-time high here, and maybe for some time to come.
On the flip side, 2024 is an election year, which often bodes well for markets, but I see many other macro obstacles that need to be overcome.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.