Spy Pre-Market Thoughts | Daily Commentary

8 Jul 2020

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Happy Hump Day!
Bulls fumbled the ball yesterday, will they save themselves today? The bulls have been unable to fill the top portion of the gap on Thursday. Will the bulls chase to the rest of the gap? Market doesn't like leaving windows.

What is the market saying about today?

1) Daily Bear flag losing steam

-Got a bear flag that started June 8. Getting really really close to losing it's pattern if we break out above 319.

2) Daily Bull flag with a breakout, top, and pulling back

- Bull flag that started on 26 June is now breaking out. As a continuation signal, this could suggest more gap filling.

3) 20SMA

-Bulls have closed above the daily 20SMA since 2 July.

3) Indicator Standings

MACD: Above zero // Sell
BB: Pulling back to center line // Above Center
RSI: Overall Uptrend // Pullback since yesterday // 60.02 -> 56.36
KO: Crossing zero line // Buy signal
OBV: Overall Uptrend // Pullback since yesterday

So what could happen today?

Bull case
1) Run up to fill 315, get rejected but manage to stay above the pre-market high
2) Push up and close above 316.
3) Holding 316 will allow them to pick up ground from yesterday.
4) Try to break above 317.15

Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 314.55
315.5
315.95 - 316.05
316.35
317.15
317.68
318.22


Bear case
1) Start closing 15 min, then hourly candles below 313.75
2) Run down to 312.9
3) Get under 312.5
4) Hold under 312.5 and get to 311.5

Support levels
(Pre-Market) 313.55
313.40
312.9
312.5
311.5
310

Unfilled gaps
- 2 gaps to the north side
317.68 - 318.22
325.85 - 332.58

- 2 gaps on the south side
296.69-295.63
291.75-286.28

3) VIX Thoughts

- VIX surged end of yesterday. Trying to set a higher low today would give thought to a daily reversal trend change.

- Options purchases are rising due to volatility somewhere. There is consumer credit report today. Which i can imagine the struggling financial sector is being hedged against.

If this helps you like and follow the chart all day. Ill be giving updates as they show up! Getting feedback helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time to read. All of this information is my interpretation and shouldn't be taken as trading advice. Good luck out there traders!

8 Jul 2020

Nota

/es mini thoughts

Bear flag strong. bulls unable to hold above 3145 ish

The longer they stay below, the sooner bears will try to breakout downward.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

bulls need 315. its a big round number and has been a battle ground for awhile.

not capturing it will present trouble.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

holding so far. 315.5 and 316 should be push back areas. bear will want to try and test 315 most certainly too

8 Jul 2020

Nota

light volume so far... its a clue for something

imagine the end of day yesterday people shorted. now they're covering.
theres people who missed the short, now theyre buying thinking theres a surge up

how could the market make the most money on this?

letting the late comers buy the dip, and then short big.

but lets see...

8 Jul 2020

Nota

got a zone of 315.95-316.05 to watch for. closing candles above 316.1 will reassure that bulls are working something out today

8 Jul 2020

Nota

wow. XLF just made a days loss in less than an hour.

XLF being weak presents problems for the market as a whole.

bouncing off a triple bottom this morning. quite the reaction to say the least.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

punching to top of the 1hour vwap on /esmini

Could be pivot time back to the center line.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

316.3 is important

bulls lost to it yesterday, theyll need to capture and hold it to keep going up.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

bulls could pullback to 315 and be safe.

closing below that and being unable to get above will be a fumble.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

got a higher low. bounce off of 315.1

bulls will want to get back above 316 to work for a higher high.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

got some channel surfing 315.6-315.25

Whichever way it breaks and hold will give more info to the overall direction.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

bulls are trying to climb up the breakdown candle. not doing to well. channel is getting tight. lets see who pounces first.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

more the bears keep pegging 315.05 ish it builds the bearish case to go lower.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

nice slice.

314.55 as a support next if they hold under 315

8 Jul 2020

Nota

Bears pushed down to the nice support at 312.9.

bulls just came back for a touch at 313.75 (yesterdays close)

If bulls dont get back and close candles above that, then bears have to ball to drive lower

8 Jul 2020

Nota

not a lot of support below 312.9

there is a 312.6 form 2 june.

but not much else jumps out.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

14.55 is the pre-market resistance. bulls will want to stay above it to work towards the all important 315.

bears of course will like to test 314.55

8 Jul 2020

Nota

bears tested, saw the bulls not bouncing hard, so they drove down to 314.15 which was a breakout for the bulls earlier

8 Jul 2020

Nota

its a little bull flag in a bigger bear flag until bulls hold above 314.65 or bears hold under314

8 Jul 2020

Nota

313.75 is a last stand for bulls before trying for the 312.9 area again.

bulls will come back and retest 313.75 is bears manage to close deep under it

8 Jul 2020

Nota

coming up short of the 314.55 area isnt very reassuring. but heading into the last hour, anything is possible. had a good boost this morning with some heavy pushback. bulls fumbled yesterday and have a distance to hit todays high and more.

8 Jul 2020

Nota

Theyll need to hold 314.55, get to 315 and hold that, then work to 316.1

a lot of work and not a lot of time. but it would look something similar to this morning if they pulled it off

8 Jul 2020

Nota

Bulls are working to hold 315.5, That was the failure point earlier, so if they capture this and 315.75, strolling to todays high shouldnt be an issue.

unless the bears pull the rug out...