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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025

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🔮 Weekly SPY / SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs
Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause

💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks

🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment
Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures

🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize
After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks

⚠️ July Risks Loom
The coming week will spotlight:

July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill

Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3
Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 30

9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity

📅 Tuesday, July 1

U.S. markets open, watch trade developments

📅 Wednesday, July 2

Global PMI readings released

📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day)

8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June)

8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June)

8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June)
These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis

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